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Can Beirut count on Beijing and Moscow to extend UNIFIL’s mandate?

Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib is in New York for a last-ditch attempt to shed an unfavorable article in UNIFIL’s mandate.

Can Beirut count on Beijing and Moscow to extend UNIFIL’s mandate?

Lebanese Army soldiers and UN peacekeepers during a media tour near the Blue Line on August 8, 2023. (Credit: Aziz Taher/Reuters)

Pressured by Hezbollah, the Lebanese state has no intention of giving up.

Ahead of the upcoming expiration of the UNIFIL’s mandate on Aug. 31, caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib traveled to New York on Wednesday in a bid to have an article strongly opposed by Hezbollah withdrawn.

Although his visit was delayed due to a lack of funding — the Bustros Palace accused the Finance Ministry of not having disbursed the $9,092 it had requested, which the Treasury denies — Bou Habib remains determined to remove the famous Article 16.

Introduced into UN Resolution 2560 last year at the instigation of Western powers, Article 16 allows the UN force to carry out its mission “without prior authorization” and “independently” of the Lebanese Army.

This amendment aroused the ire of both Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah, but they were unable to have it withdrawn. Beirut is reapproaching the topic this year, and hoping for support from Moscow and Beijing.

‘They will support Lebanon to the end’

“For Lebanon, it is important to withdraw Article 16, both out of respect for Lebanese sovereignty and to protect UNIFIL from potential incidents with the inhabitants, who trust the Lebanese Army,” a Lebanese diplomat told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity.

In December, Irish peacekeeper Sean Rooney was killed in the village of al-Aaqbiya when his convoy was attacked by locals. Lebanese courts later pressed charges against multiple members of Hezbollah in relation to the incident.

More recently, residents of the town of Khiam, South Lebanon, attacked a UNIFIL convoy and tried to place a Hezbollah flag on a UN vehicle.

From a Western perspective, these incidents only reinforce their desire to strengthen the prerogatives of the UN force.

“The death of Sean Rooney makes us increasingly holding onto the independence of the Blue Helmets,” a Western diplomatic source told L’Orient-Le Jour.

Faced with this intransigence, the Lebanese hope to count on the support of the Russians or the Chinese, who have veto power in the UN Security Council.

“I contacted the authorities in both countries, and they said that they will support Lebanon to the end,” Amal Abou Zeid, a former Free Patriotic Movement MP and former envoy to Russia, told L’Orient-Le Jour.

“Russia and China will oppose anything that Lebanon does not accept, and are currently coordinating their position with the Bustros Palace,” Abou Zeid added.

However, China and Russia declined to use their veto power to block Article 16 when it was introduced in 2022.

At the time, relations between Moscow and Beirut were not at their best. Lebanon adopted a pro-Ukraine stance at the UN General Assembly in the early months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since then, however, Lebanon has revised its position, adopting a more neutral stance.

Is that enough to change the Kremlin’s mind?

“If the Lebanese ask for it, Moscow could help in the negotiations,” said Yeghia Tashjian, a researcher at the American University of Beirut specializing in Russian affairs. He pointed out that both the Russians and the Chinese are committed to the Blue Helmets’s mission and the southern border’s stability. More than 400 soldiers from the Chinese army serve in UNIFIL.

A middle ground

In this context, the French, who are responsible for drafting UNIFIL’s updated mandate, are looking for a middle ground.

“We are working to find a wording that is acceptable to all players and protects the independence of UNIFIL,” a French diplomatic source told L’Orient-Le Jour. “But we must not forget that there is also a financial aspect to the matter, as the Lebanese Army needs fuel if it is to accompany the peacekeepers on patrol.”

Lebanon is calling for a yearlong extension of aid that UNIFIL supplies to the Lebanese Army. During his Tuesday meeting with opposition MPs, Army Commander Joseph Aoun said the troops could run out of oil in the coming weeks, according to an MP who was present at the meeting.

However, some UN members fear that this situation could become normalized and set a precedent that peacekeeping forces are obliged to assist national armies.

Lebanon is negotiating with the world powers from a weak position and may find it difficult to impose its conditions. This may be especially true because, according to both Western and Lebanese diplomatic sources, Washington and Tel Aviv are seeking to promote UNIFIL’s independence after the string of recent security incidents along the southern border.

In early July, Israel absorbed the Lebanese part of Ghajar, a village divided by the UN Blue Line, (the de-facto border between Lebanon and the Israeli-occupied portion of the Syrian Golan Heights), by constructing a fence to the north of the village, cutting it off from Lebanon.

This violation of UN Resolution 1701 came in response to Hezbollah placing two tents in the disputed area of the Kfar Shouba hills and the Shebaa farms — a territory claimed by Lebanon, considered to be Syrian by the international community and occupied by Israel.

Since then, the situation at the border has been precarious.

“UNIFIL’s freedom of movement and access to sensitive areas are essential to reduce instability along the Blue Line,” said a spokesperson for the US Embassy in Lebanon.

“Russia and China could help Lebanon prevent new unfavorable clauses from being added to the renewed text,” said Joe Macaron, a Wilson Center fellow focusing on the Middle East. “However, these two countries cannot do much to impose the Lebanese conditions.”

In Beirut’s diplomatic circles, it is believed that the next few days will be decisive.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.

Pressured by Hezbollah, the Lebanese state has no intention of giving up. Ahead of the upcoming expiration of the UNIFIL’s mandate on Aug. 31, caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib traveled to New York on Wednesday in a bid to have an article strongly opposed by Hezbollah withdrawn.Although his visit was delayed due to a lack of funding — the Bustros Palace accused the Finance...