The former head of General Security, Abbas Ibrahim, during the handover ceremony on Wednesday. (Credit: Nabil Ismail)
No one expected it. The all-powerful Abbas Ibrahim’s term as head of General Security (GS) was not ultimately extended, despite the support of Hezbollah, the real master of the Lebanese political game.
He passed the baton yesterday to General Elias Baissari after serving for almost 12 years at the helm of General Security, during which time he built strong relations with almost all the political actors, allowing him to wield an influence that went far beyond the security field.
From Gebran Bassil and Saad Hariri to Hezbollah and the United States, the Syrian regime and the opposition, this officer from southern Lebanon and a member of the Shiite community, was quick to establish himself as an effective mediator on the local and international scenes, often liaising between hawkish adversaries.
His first major cases at the head of General Security came after the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011. In 2013, he negotiated with Qatar to release Lebanese Shiite hostages who had been held for 13 months by Syrian Sunni rebels. They were captured on their way back from a pilgrimage in Iran.
In March 2014, he negotiated the release of Christian nuns from the Syrian town of Maaloula who had been kidnapped by jihadists four months earlier north of Damascus. It was Ibrahim who was then contacted to free various Western hostages in Syria. Thanks to his mediation, Kristian Lee Baxter (Canadian) and Sam Goodwin (American) were released in the summer of 2019. Ibrahim also succeeded in convincing Tehran, in June 2019, to release Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese resident of the United States who was arrested in 2015 while visiting Iran, on charges of “spying” for Washington.
That is not to mention the “sensitive missions” he was in charge of back when he headed the military intelligence unit in southern Lebanon. Ibrahim is a tremendous asset for Hezbollah, which benefits from the general’s solid network and negotiating skills to break out of its international isolation.
So why was Ibrahim let go?
Did the desire to keep him in office face restrictions by Hezbollah, or did the latter consider the battle too politically costly?
As is often the case in Lebanon, there is a bit of both. It is true that the General Security head served Hezbollah’s interests in a number of dossiers, including the maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel, but Hassan Nasrallah’s party had to sacrifice him for the sake of its allies. However, for Ibrahim, this is not the end.
‘The Shiite brother’
Momentum to extend Ibrahim’s term has indeed come up against a tough institutional blockage, more than four months after the presidential vacancy began.
On the one hand, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has stopped convening the MPs for a plenary session (to amend the law) after dozens of parliamentarians — mainly from Christian parties, including those of the Free Patriotic Movement — announced a boycott opposing the enactment of laws when the assembly is considered an electoral body as is the case now.
On the other hand, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati refused to discuss the issue during his last cabinet meeting, saying that it was up to the Parliament to change the retirement age for civil servants.
Officially, Hezbollah said it has done everything it can to keep Ibrahim in his post, but to no avail. This is a rare admission of weakness by Hezbollah, which operates the main state levers in its own interests and those of its allies.
But this time, it is Hezbollah’s ally who has given it a hard time. First of all, it is about Berri, the “Shiite brother” that Hezbollah — increasingly isolated at the local and international levels — does not want to give a hard time and all the more so in a context of increased instability.
The parliament speaker has a clear interest in putting obstacles in the way of General Ibrahim, who is his serious rival, particularly since he regularly takes Berri’s place as mediator between the leading names of Lebanese politics.
Backed by his strong relations with practically all the actors, both in Lebanon and abroad, Ibrahim seems to have several advantages that would enable him to impose himself as parliament speaker, a position reserved for Shiite Muslims.
“Nabih Berri is quite old, and his succession will surely be raised during the next parliamentary elections in 2026,” said analyst Ali al-Amin.
But Berri’s succession will probably be played out in an open arena, particularly since Washington clipped the wings of his successor and right-hand man, MP Ali Hassan Khalil, by imposing sanctions on him in 2020, citing corruption.
On the other hand, Ibrahim maintains excellent relations with the United States, whose ambassador, Dorothy Shea, was keen to visit and bid him farewell. The officer was indeed a privileged communicator of US mediator Amos Hochstein during the negotiations over the maritime border demarcation with Israel. Washington had also entrusted him with negotiating with Damascus the release of Austin Tice, a US journalist held in Syria since 2012.
Blocking the way to Riad Salameh
But this interpretation is dismissed by Ain al-Tineh’s circles.
“Mr. Berri has good relations with Abbas Ibrahim and wanted to hold a legislative session to delay his retirement,” said an Amal MP.
“The Christian blocs, which refuse that Parliament does its work before a president is elected, are responsible for the failure of this session,” he said, in reference mainly to the Lebanese Forces (LF) and Free Patriotic Movement (FMP), the two main Christian parliamentary blocs.
The FPM has conditioned its participation in the session on a right of review of its agenda, insisting on limiting it to the extension of terms, but not only to that of Ibrahim, but also other directors general. But Berri did not give in to the FPM conditions, particularly since it was most likely convenient for him to see the session go down the drain.
Hezbollah meanwhile, did not want to put pressure on its Shiite ally so as to satisfy Bassil, with whom relations have been strained since Hezbollah sided with Mikati in the tug-of-war with the FPM over cabinet prerogatives and since the Iran-aligned party supported the candidacy of Sleiman Frangieh for president. On the brink of “divorce”, the two allies are no longer allowing each other any advantages.
This rare convergence of interests between Berri and Bassil pushed Hezbollah to turn to Mikati. The latter then found himself in an inconvenient situation. If he enabled the cabinet to extend Ibrahim’s term as Hezbollah wanted, he would have set himself up against his biggest political supporter, Berri. Thus, the Tripolitan billionaire preferred to pass the buck back to the Parliament, claiming that the cabinet did not have the prerogatives to extend the term of the GS’s boss and making it almost impossible for Hezbollah to find a last minute solution for Ibrahim.
While the powerful Shiite party could have put pressure on Mikati, who owes Hezbollah a great deal, it probably felt that it was not worth the risk. Because even internationally, it is preferred not to extend Ibrahim’s term.
Diplomatic sources informed L’Orient-Le Jour that the international community wants above all to avoid any dynamic leading to the extension of senior officials’ terms, out of fear of benefitting the central bank’s governor Riad Salameh, while many Western chancelleries said they refuse that he stays in his post. Foreign powers reportedly would not have looked at the extension of Ibrahim’s term with a favorable eye, considering that he is being charged in the Beirut port blast investigation, not to mention the accusations of corruption that have also somewhat tarnished his popularity.
MP, minister, or Berri’s successor?
The fact remains that, even outside the GS, talk of Ibrahim continues.
“Tomorrow, we will continue the journey in various other fields in order to raise the status of Lebanon,” said Ibrahimon Wednesday at the foundation stone laying ceremony of a new GS center in Quarantina. It is a clear hint of his willingness to officially enter politics.
“Hassan Nasrallah could push to give him a ministerial portfolio in the next cabinet, pending the parliamentary elections,” said Kassem Kassir, a political commentator.
The officer also told reporters on Wednesday that he had the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in his crosshairs. One of the four key sovereign portfolios subject to a very sensitive sectarian distribution, the minister of foreign affairs position is often granted to Christians, while the Shiites — and more precisely someone close to Nabih Berry — get the Ministry of Finance.
Sources told L’Orient-Le Jour that Hezbollah also promised to support Ibrahim’s candidacy in the next parliamentary elections. If elected parliament speaker, he could continue to play the role of institutional face for Hezbollah, which Berri has been playing for many years. Yet, he could face the veto of the Amal movement’s leader, who wants to keep the speakership in his own hands.
What is even more alarming for Berri is that Ibrahim is a fairly popular figure. Social media abounded in praise after his departure was announced.Posters were strewn across the country in support of the Shiite general when he was charged in the Aug. 4, 2020 case. Hezbollah did not support the possible candidacy of its protégé (Ibrahim) in the 2022 parliamentary elections to refrain from offending Berri.
General Jamil al-Sayyed, a predecessor of Ibrahim, also joined politics after a career in the GS. Close to Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, he made his opposition to Berri — whom he accused of corruption — his main focus.
Although elected MP twice, Sayyed has limited political prospects because of his weak relations with the Amal movement.He therefore has never been considered a serious candidate for the post of parliament speaker. To avoid the same fate as Sayyed, Ibrahim will once again have to play a balancing act.
This article was originally published in French in L’Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.