A meeting of the Lebanese Parliament on Sept. 26, 2022 in Beirut. (Credit: Ali Fawaz/Lebanese Parliament/Flickr)
BEIRUT — A majority of Lebanese MPs will attend Thursday’s parliamentary session to elect a new president, ahead of the Oct. 31 deadline for current President Michel Aoun to vacate his post.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri scheduled the Thursday session 11 a.m. despite there being no consensus yet on a candidate, though negotiations are underway.
The MPs who announced they will participate in the session number is around 100, which is above the two-thirds quorum needed to open the session. Parliament has a total 128 deputies.
A Hezbollah spokesperson told L'Orient Today on Wednesday that the party will participate in the session, and that an official statement regarding their participation would be released soon.
Hezbollah and its allies previously prevented parliamentary sessions for the election of the president by not attending and thereby causing a lack of quorum. That strategy ended when Parliament voted Aoun into office on Oct. 31, 2016.
Amal Movement MP Ali Khreiss said in a statement that the party would partake in Thursday's session.
A Lebanese Forces source told L'Orient Le-Jour Tuesday that the party will also attend.
Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil also said Thursday in a press conference that his party will participate in the session but will vote blank because "we don’t have any candidate that we support until now."
According to the state-run National News Agency, the Progressive Socialist Party, led by Walid Joumblatt, announced they will attend the session and cast a vote. They said they will announce their candidate during the session.
Coordination between opposition MPs
The Forces of Change MPs also said they plan to participate, with the exception of MP Ibrahim Mneimneh who apologized for not being able to after testing positive for COVID-19. MP Michel Douaihy, from Zgharta, tweeted Wednesday morning: “We will participate and we will vote.”
The group will meet Wednesday night to “make the final decision on the selection of a candidate this evening,” MP Paula Yaacoubian said during an interview with Al Jadeed. Yacoubian told L'Orient Today later that same day that their bloc will make its decision Thursday after coordinating with other opposition MPs, including the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb.”
سنشارك وسننتخب.#رئاسة_الجمهورية_اللبنانية#لبنان
— Michel C Douaihy د.ميشال دويهي (@MDOUAIHY) September 28, 2022
The 13 Forces of Change MPs have already met with various parliamentary blocs in an effort to agree on presidential candidates under the slogan "Preventing any presidential vacancy." They had also threatened to take to the streets if a president is not elected by Oct. 21, 10 days before the constitutional deadline to do so.
The National Moderation Bloc (former Future Movement MPs) and Tashnag (Armenian MPs, also announced Wednesday their participation in Thursday’s session.
Independent Zgharta MP Michel Moawad's Renewal Bloc also stated it will attend Thursday's session, along with Saida MP Osama Saad's bloc.
The two-member Ahbash bloc, consisting of MPs Adnan Traboulsi and Taha Naji, and the Independent National Bloc of MPs Tony Frangieh, William Tok, Michel el-Murr and Farid al-Khazen are also set to attend. Finally, independent Western Bekaa MP Hasan Mrad confirmed his participation as well.
Gebran Bassil's Free Patriotic Movement have not announced its decision, but Bassil is set to give a press conference Wednesday at 5:30 pm.
According to the constitution, specifically Article 49, the president is elected by Parliament. The president may be chosen in the first round of voting if they gather the support of two-thirds of MPs (86 out of the current 128), as the constitution encourages consensus. If not, the president can be elected in the subsequent rounds with an absolute majority of 65 votes.
Though the president has always been a Maronite Christian — with one notable exception in the 1920s and 30s — the constitution does not state that the position is reserved for a specific religious group. Rather, this precedent was reached via an informal agreement known as the National Pact in 1943. Under the agreement, the president is a Maronite, the prime mister a Sunni and the parliament speaker a Shiite.
Sleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada movement, Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, and Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces, are considered by observers to be "natural" candidates, due to their status as Maronite leaders.
Various other figures have officially announced their candidacy, including economist Ziad Hayek, former ambassador Tracy Chamoun, and Lebanese-American writer and development expert May Rihani. Army commander-in-chief General Joseph Aoun's name has also been the subject of discussion, though his candidacy would require a constitutional amendment, as military officers must be retired or have officially resigned from office six months before an election.
The international community has for several weeks been pressing for the election of a new president, in parallel with the numerous reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund to release financial aid.
Observers have feared a total political vacancy at the executive level if a new president is not elected by the constitutionally set Oct. 31 deadline, as a new cabinet has also not been formed since parliamentary elections in May. Instead, the previous cabinet has been serving in a caretaker capacity in the meantime.