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GULF DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

The reasons behind the Gulf countries' re-engagement with Lebanon

Two Lebanese officials told L'Orient-Le Jour that the United Arab Emirates and Qatar organized meetings with Hezbollah in Beirut, something that was not confirmed by officials from the Arab countries.

The reasons behind the Gulf countries' re-engagement with Lebanon

Emmanuel Macron and Mohammad bin Salman last December in Jeddah. (Credit: Photo archives/AFP)

The regional dynamics are shifting, and Lebanon is not an exception.

A few days after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's visit to the United Arab Emirates, his first to an Arab country since 2011, the Gulf countries appear to have laid the groundwork for their re-engagement in Lebanon, five months after a near-breakdown of diplomatic events with the land of the cedars.

But are these two developments linked? Nothing is for sure yet.

Two Lebanese officials told L'Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity for security reasons, that the UAE and Qatar have recently opened channels of dialogue with Hezbollah in a bid to facilitate the Arab monarchies' political return to Lebanon.

Officials from both countries have reportedly met with Hezbollah leaders in Beirut in recent days to ease tensions and discuss the need to find a compromise in Yemen, where the party is directly involved.

Contacted by L'Orient-Le Jour for comment on said meeting, the Qatari and Emirati officials declined to confirm the information.

As Lebanese parliamentary elections are drawing nearer, and following intense lobbying on part of France, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries seem ready to re-engage in the Lebanese political game.

On Tuesday, the Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry issued a statement praising Prime Minister Najib Mikati's remarks in which he renewed his government's commitment to take the necessary steps to restore Lebanon's ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council.

On Wednesday, Mikati expressed optimism for an improvement in relations with the Gulf, saying “the dark cloud that covered relations… will soon disappear.”

Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari along with other ambassadors from the Gulf countries could return to Lebanon in the coming two weeks. A decision to this regard is expected to be taken during the GCC summit slated for Sunday.

Riyadh seems to have realized that its withdrawal from the Lebanese political scene could play into Iran's hands, and as a consequence strengthen Hezbollah's camp in the upcoming legislative elections.

France's efforts have also had a decisive role in the kingdom's change of heart, notably following a meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman in Jeddah in December 2021.

Three other factors helped convince Riyadh to reconsider its position vis-à-vis Lebanon.

The first was the rapprochement between several local leaders, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, who are all calling for Saudi Arabia's re-engagement in Lebanon and are joining forces to run in the electoral races.

The second was the fact that Mikati's government carried out several operations against the trafficking of captagon from Lebanon to the Gulf — a major issue for the Gulf monarchies. This is not to mention that Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi was extremely vocal against and opposed critical events of Arab governments organized by Hezbollah with Bahraini and Yemeni opposition groups.

The third factor was Egypt's diplomatic activities, in which it acted as an intermediary, talking Lebanese officials into making the necessary efforts toward rapprochement with other Arab countries.

Local and regional compromise

“Everyone is aware that Lebanon's status will only be settled by a major agreement, both internal and external, and no party wants to be excluded,” a Western diplomat told L'Orient-Le Jour, commenting on Saudi Arabia's changing position.

Besides the May 15 legislative elections, the succession of President Michel Aoun will be another highlight of the year. A possible power reshuffle will certainly only take place within the framework of a local and regional compromise.

All of these developments are taking place at a time when the United States and Iran are in the process of resurrecting the nuclear agreement, which should also have consequences on the regional power balance.

Freed from some of the sanctions that are stifling its economy, Tehran can either choose to appease its neighbors or, on the contrary, escalate its influence in several Arab countries, first and foremost in Lebanon.

As if to send a message that any change in the regional dynamics cannot take place without Tehran's blessing, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian landed in Beirut yesterday, after visiting Damascus. 

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated from French by Sahar Ghoussoub.

The regional dynamics are shifting, and Lebanon is not an exception.A few days after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's visit to the United Arab Emirates, his first to an Arab country since 2011, the Gulf countries appear to have laid the groundwork for their re-engagement in Lebanon, five months after a near-breakdown of diplomatic events with the land of the cedars.But are these two...