Fouad Siniora (center) accompanied by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in front of Rafik Hariri's grave in Beirut on Feb. 14. (Credit: Anwar Amro/AFP)
Two months out from the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 15, ambiguity continues to surround the Sunni scene. The barons of the community have begun to realize they need to take swift actions in a bid to avoid a scenario they claim would play into Hezbollah’s hands in the legislative elections scheduled for May 15.
The withdrawal of Future Movement head Saad Hariri from political life could demobilize the Sunni electorate, allowing the pro-Iranian party to win the day.
The candidacy of former Lebanese ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam in the Beirut constituency, is seen as essential in the electoral battle — something that former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora appears adamant to see happen.
After having tested the waters, Siniora concluded that he wouldn’t be as welcomed as Salam as a candidate in Beirut, meaning the latter has a better chance of leading the battle. Prime Minister Najib Mikati seems to be on the same wavelength.
In an attempt to persuade Salam, who is currently a judge at the International Court of Justice, to toss his hat in the ring, Siniora sent one of his emissaries to Paris on Thursday.
“We are rather optimistic that Nawaf will say yes,” a source close to Siniora who has been closely following on the issue told L’Orient-Le Jour.
On Salam’s part, however, caution is exercised.
“Nawaf has yet to make his decision. He will announce it in the coming days,” a close associate said. According to information obtained by L’Orient-Le Jour, Salam is seriously tempted by the idea of entering the fray.
Salam, however, does not want to be at the mercy of former prime ministers, especially since this would undermine his popularity, notably in the eyes of the Oct. 17 forces who view Siniora as part of the political establishment.
He also cannot afford to confront Harirists, but does not, at the same time, wish to associate himself directly with them.
“Nawaf wants to embody a new option. He does not want to be seen as a member of the former premiers’ group,” Salam’s close associate said.
“My candidacy depends on a clear political project,” Salam told L’Orient-Le Jour on Feb. 22.
Siniora’s entourage is convinced that the ICJ judge can “give new life” to a dejected community.
“He is capable of motivating revolutionaries and shaking up the Sunni community,” Siniora’s close associate said.
Commenting on whether Salam would be allowed to build his own electoral list without interference from anyone, the source said, “We have no objections at all.”
But, “things are not that simple,” a source close to Salam retorted.
Alloush’s resignation
In the meantime, contacts between the other Sunni barons intensified in order to get things moving. Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari has recently been back on speaking terms with Siniora, an indication that the kingdom may have renewed interest in the Lebanese vote.
“Saudi Arabia wants to wait for the election results to decide on its policy, but has, at the same time, sent positive signs to Siniora,” a well-informed Arab diplomat told L’Orient-Le Jour.
Meanwhile, many Haririens believe that their leader’s decision to bow out of politics could lead them straight into the wall. Hariri could be pushing in this direction in a bid to prove to the kingdom that he is the only one who can keep a lid on Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon.
This could explain the reason why several Future Movement heavyweights are trying to keep their distance from their leader, including the party’s No. 2 Mustafa Alloush, who was the first to take the plunge.
On March 4, Alloush announced that he was no longer a member of the party.
“I contacted Hariri to let him know that I wish to support Siniora’s approach, and I was ready to resign,” Alloush told L’Orient-Le Jour.
He added, “I asked him how the Future Movement could not allow its members to participate in the elections, while Ahmad Hariri [the party’s secretary-general] and Ahmad Hashimiyeh [the party’s head of office in Beirut] are busy forming lists and negotiating with candidates.”
According to L’Orient-Le Jour’s information, Hariri has denied these claims and that he will request everyone to halt their electoral activities.
Following his declared support for Siniora, some Future Movement members were swift to harshly criticize Alloush’s move, which prompted him to submit his resignation from the party.
On March 4, the Future Movement published another press release, condemning the smear campaign against the former Tripoli MP.
“The Future Movement calls on its members and supporters, as well as internet users, to refrain from hurling accusations of treason against highly esteemed and respectable people, regardless of any political differences with them,” the statement read with no mention of Alloush.
Mikati, for his part, is also trying to get things moving. According to information obtained by L’Orient-Le Jour, the premier has recently attempted to persuade Ahmad Hariri to put an end to the Future Movement campaign calling on Sunnis to boycott the vote, arguing that this would eventually play into Hezbollah’s hands.
Mikati is allegedly working on this plan in coordination with Siniora and Dar al-Fatwa.
Will the premier run himself in the elections? “He hasn’t decided yet, but there’s a good chance he won’t,” a source close to Mikati said.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.
