Hassan Nasrallah during his televised speech on Friday evening. Photo ANI
The shift in Nasrallah's position regarding IMF intervention in Lebanon - assis-tance his group has so far categorically rejected under the pretext of protecting national sovereignty - and the timing of his speech should be attributed to a large extent to a state of panic caused by an alarming increase in the number of people infected with the virus in Lebanon as well as in Iran, Hezbollah's patron and worst-hit country by the epidemic in the Middle East. This calamity comes on top of an economic and financial crisis that’s hitting Lebanon with full force, and particularly the popular base of the Shiite Party.
Already squeezed by the US sanctions that have dried up his party’s resources and those of his Iranian patron, Nasrallah quickly grasped the gravity of the situation and the "new looming war": how a country in an appalling condition and terribly lacking resources can fight the pandemic.
“We must confront this invading enemy. We must not feel defeated,” said the Shiite leader when he started delivering his speech. He urged utmost efforts to limit the virus spread and reduce the number of deaths.
Hezbollah's shift regarding international aid, and more particularly that provided by the IMF - which some observers described as a 180-degree turnaround - was undoubtedly influenced by a decision adopted by Iran two days earlier.
On March 11, Iran appealed to the IMF, seeking, in a very exceptional way, its assistance in the face of COVID-19. “Our central bank has requested immediate access” to the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), wrote Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on his Twitter account. The last time Iran requested a loan from the IMF was under its final Shah in 1962, well before the 1978 Islamic Revolution that established clerical rule.
This unprecedented request by the Islamic Republic fueled all sorts of criticism of Hezbollah, which had persistently rejected any role, other than advice, from the international body.
The accelerating spread of COVID-19 and the ever-increasing death toll of victims eventually reversed this stubbornness, and prompted the Shiite party to ease its position. In the time of coronavirus, solidarity and mutual assistance are needed beyond international conflicts, and conditions must be eased. This can be seen in the new stance of Hezbollah’s chief.
Nasrallah wanted to save his party’s face by asserting consent to any international aid, provided that it isn’t coupled with unacceptable conditions that would harm “national interests.” Hezbollah's red lines include the naturalization of Palestinians; a condition the IMF cannot under any circumstances impose. Another is a VAT increase from 15% to 20%; an unpopular measure that would seriously affect the already severely diminished purchasing power of Lebanese nationals in general and Shiite popular circles in particular.
Intervention by France?
However, it seems that Tehran’s position is not the only factor behind the flexibil-ity demonstrated by Nasrallah. According to well-informed sources, France may also have played a prominent role trying to convince party officials of the need and importance of seeking IMF assistance, which must necessarily be part of a gov-ernment-submitted bailout package.
The sources said French Ambassador Bruno Foucher exerted efforts to reassure Hezbollah, explaining that the conditions set by the IMF wouldn’t be extreme, and that everything would be subject to negotiations between the Lebanese government and the international body to adjust the measures to be adopted.
Similar assurances were given by some experienced economists who, on several occasions, had clarified that the IMF has eventually softened its position on the conditions to be imposed.“ Building on past experience, which proved sometimes to have had disastrous effects on countries in difficulties, the IMF has finally recognized the existing socioeconomic realities and is now taking into account the multiple vulnerabilities of countries in crises,” said an economist who closely follows this issue.
These are the many indicators that eventually led Hezbollah to reconsider its position and be realistic at such critical times.
While he was keen to announce himself Hezbollah new stance towards the IMF, Nasrallah seized the opportunity to also pave the way for the declaration of a state of health emergency in the face of the inexorable advance of the coronavirus pandemic. Faced with the government’s reluctance to close the borders and take firm measures to slow the pandemic, Nasrallah took the lead in suggesting, in a most diplomatic tone, the need to act quickly. The government understood the message and announced on March 15, after a meeting of the Supreme Defense Council and a meeting of the Council of Ministers, the state of general mobilization and the new emergency measures to be put in place.
(This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour on the 16th of March)
