At a time when divisions among the Lebanese appear to be deepening, particularly over direct negotiations with Israel, some political parties are asking why President Joseph Aoun has not launched the internal dialogue he promised in his inaugural speech. According to many Lebanese parties, such a dialogue has now become essential. On one hand, it could help ease internal tensions that could lead to clashes and security breakdowns. On the other, it could help resolve Lebanon's political deadlock.
As negotiations appear stalled, some believe this is the right time to ease internal tensions through a national dialogue while waiting for regional and international developments to unfold. If the dialogue fails, they argue, no one could accuse it of undermining the negotiations. If it succeeds in moving the process forward and strengthening internal cohesion, Lebanon would take a major step toward stability.
This argument, however, does not appear to have convinced the presidency, which believes that now, more than ever, such a dialogue would not be constructive. Proponents of this view point to the debates during the parliamentary session on the government’s general policy. What remained with the Lebanese, they argue, were the MPs’ heated personal exchanges, with many appearing more focused on populism than on substantive issues.
In such a context, launching an internal dialogue on the fate of Hezbollah’s weapons and what is now called a "national defense strategy" could prove counterproductive. The various parties could use the opportunity to air their grievances, potentially leading to heated exchanges that could quickly spiral out of control. The dialogue could then collapse under circumstances even more difficult than those that existed before it began.
With the regional and international situation still uncertain, starting a dialogue that ultimately falters could deepen existing divisions. It could further worsen the country’s situation while exhausting a political option that could prove useful and offer a way out in the future. Dialogue, ultimately, requires certain conditions and must take place in a favorable atmosphere, including a willingness among participants to engage constructively.
For dialogue to succeed, participants must be willing to engage and sustain the process. They must also be prepared, if necessary, to make concessions to keep it going. Otherwise, dialogue could further worsen the political climate. So far, most of the main parties appear unwilling to compromise, with each continuing to bet on the other’s defeat. The president also lacks the powers needed to compel the parties to participate. Some could attend simply to derail the process, while others could boycott it altogether. Lebanon has seen previous attempts to launch national dialogue, but several parties refused to participate.
For this reason, the president cannot launch an internal dialogue on a national defense strategy unless Lebanese parties are prepared to take part and willing to discuss the issue calmly and constructively. Sources close to the presidency also point out that when Hezbollah officials call for such a dialogue, they know that it cannot take place for now because other parties are unwilling to participate.
The Lebanese remain caught in the same vicious cycle: When one side feels weak, it calls for dialogue, believing it can compensate for its lack of leverage. When it feels strong, it no longer wants dialogue because it believes it does not need it.
For all these reasons, the president believes the time is not right for an internal dialogue. According to sources close to him, such calls are part of political maneuvering. Aoun favors bilateral dialogue with Hezbollah. Some also see another reason for his reluctance to call for a broader dialogue at this stage: He wants to retain sole responsibility for the negotiation process he has already launched and for which he has assumed responsibility.
At some point, he will likely need to secure the approval of all parties, or at least consult them. But, for now, he believes that time has not yet come.
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