Smoke billows from Fujairah oil industry zone, following a drone attack, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, in this screengrab obtained from asocial media video released on May 4, 2026. (Credit: Social Media/via Reuters)
The regional state of alert has been reactivated. On the evening of Monday, May 4, Iran, once again, targeted the United Arab Emirates, nearly a month after the cessation of near-daily attacks on the country, which has been the hardest hit by Iranian reprisals in the war triggered by the Israelis and Americans on Feb. 28.
Iran said it did not intend to target the federation. However, on the same day, Washington launched "Project Freedom" to escort vessels seeking to cross the Strait of Hormuz, which the Islamic Republic has been blocking since the start of the conflict. What, then, was Tehran seeking with its strikes on the Emirati federation amid renewed tensions with the United States?
Responding to the United States with escalation
"Iran's announcement of an expanded control envelope in the Strait of Hormuz - coupled with strikes on oil facilities in Fujairah and strikes on oil tankers - points to a deliberate escalation toward the United Arab Emirates’ oil export bypass routes," notes analyst Hamidreza Azizi on his X account.
With the de facto closure of the strategic maritime passage, through which nearly 20% of global hydrocarbons transited before the war, new routes have been developed to compensate for these disrupted flows. The Fujairah terminal, in particular, serves as an export outlet for nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil transported daily through a pipeline connected to Habshan, with a capacity reaching 1.8 million barrels per day.
Prior to the strikes on the oil zone of the main Emirati port south of the Strait of Hormuz, a building belonging to the national company ADNOC had also been targeted.
"The objective is to keep alternative export channels at risk, sustain elevated oil prices, and block any perception of normalization. In other words, the message is that Donald Trump’s mission in the strait will not be cost-free. Instead, it will generate greater complexity and sustained pressure on the energy market," the Azizi added.
"Project Liberty" is the latest American attempt to force Tehran to break the diplomatic deadlock, following the imposition of a blockade on Iranian ports on April 13 and a series of intensified economic sanctions.
These measures have so far failed to compel the Iranian leadership to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz or to extract concessions in talks mediated by Pakistan.
The new strategy could prove costly for the United States — in human resources, with 15,000 personnel assigned to the mission according to Centcom; in military assets, as several projectiles have been intercepted and Iranian boats destroyed; and, ultimately, financially. But it could also deprive Tehran of its main leverage in the ongoing war of attrition with Washington.
On the first day of the operation, two vessels flying the U.S. flag were able to sail under the protection of the American military, although they still came under attack. This was not enough to restore pre-war levels of traffic — which stood at around 150 ships crossing the strait daily — but it may have helped reassure markets and partially restore hydrocarbon flows.
The move also appears designed to influence global oil prices, and by extension fuel costs in the U.S., a potentially decisive factor ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for November.
Iran is reportedly concerned that Donald Trump is also playing a long game, and has responded with strikes against its neighbor, rejecting any shift in the strategic balance and signaling that the new U.S. approach carries risks.
United Arab Emirates particularly targeted
Though most projectiles were intercepted, Iran succeeded in causing a fire in Fujairah, injuring three Indian workers in the port's oil zone. The Sultanate of Oman also reported attacks on residential buildings in Tibat, a city in its Musandam exclave, which borders the Emirate of Ras al-Khaimah, suggesting a targeting error.
The focus on the United Arab Emirates can be explained by the country's geopolitical position. A spearhead of normalization with Israel, through the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Abu Dhabi has since deepened its partnership with Israel, including in the defense sector. During the war against Iran, Emirati leaders requested that their partner deploy the Iron Dome air defense system in the country, Axios revealed.
Seeking to pursue an independent energy policy without restrictions and to assert its geopolitical autonomy by aligning with the Israeli-American side in the region, the UAE recently announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ group — a move seen as a blow to its Saudi partner.
Iran may therefore be betting on fragmentation within the Gulf to minimize risks of retaliation. However, international condemnations have multiplied and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has called UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to offer his support, at least officially.
Retaliation on the horizon?
Abu Dhabi could nevertheless choose to respond on its own, having reinstated remote learning. One of the factors for the split with its Gulf neighbors, according to observers, has been their perceived muted response to Iranian attacks.
"Tonight will be a difficult night for Iran," threatened Emirati influencer Sultan Alwashahi on X Monday evening.
However, military adventurism without American backing appears unlikely. Israeli incentives to resume the war are insufficient. "U.S. may end up breaking the cease-fire and going back to bombing if Trump decides that's what he wants to do, but I'm not sure the defense of the UAE is a strong enough casus belli, at least not right now," analyst Gregory Brew wrote on X.
The U.S. president, who extended the cease-fire indefinitely on April 21 to allow diplomacy to proceed, reportedly downplayed Monday's Iranian attacks to ABC News journalist Jonathan Karl, saying that "most [of the projectiles] were shot down," Karl reported on X.
On Tuesday, May 5, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Washington "is not seeking to fight" through its operations to protect commercial ships, adding that the cease-fire with Iran was still in place, while urging Tehran to exercise caution in its actions.
While the military option remains on the table — particularly for Israel — alternative approaches aimed at forcing Iran to back down appear, for now, to be preferred, ahead of a meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and in line with the positions of Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia.
Yet, in an endurance contest, the advantage does not always lie with the side that suffers least in absolute terms. "Bigger question is whether today's actions from Iran [on Monday] are strong enough to keep "Operation Freedom" from taking off," concluded Gregory Brew.
