Our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani.
Dear readers,
At least “a few more weeks” in Iran and “a few months” in Lebanon: that is the timeline Israel is reportedly considering for the continuation of its war on these two fronts, according to Israeli security sources. While Hezbollah has entered the war to support Tehran against Israeli-U.S. strikes, it may face the risk of being sidelined as its sponsor navigates the chaos.
Israel’s objectives differ sharply between the two countries. With U.S. backing, it seeks the collapse of Iran’s regime and the halt of its nuclear ambitions, while pressing Lebanon toward a peace agreement and aiming to dismantle Hezbollah completely.
On the ground in Lebanon, hundreds of thousands of people displaced by Israeli attacks have little hope of returning home soon. The Lebanese government is pushing for a one-month cease-fire and direct negotiations with Israel. But Tel Aviv has rejected these initiatives, leaving diplomacy at a standstill.
Regional attention is also focused on the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. President Donald Trump is pressing allies — including China — to keep hydrocarbon traffic flowing through the waters Iran has effectively blocked.
More than two weeks into this regional war, major questions remain. Can an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon be prevented? What concessions might the Lebanese state accept? Will the U.S. and Israel settle the war in Iran without a decisive victory? And if the war stops in Iran, will it continue in Lebanon?
Ask your own questions to our co-editor-in-chief Anthony Samrani in the comments on this article (if you are a subscriber) or by email, at livechatolj@lorientlejour.com👈
He will respond here in this live blog 👈 on Monday, March 16, at 7 p.m.
Looking forward to receiving your questions.
Israel continues attacks on southern Lebanon, demolishes buildings in Bint Jbeil
Hello Anthony, Can we ascertain the plausibility, impact, and intensity of a civil conflict if the LAF enforces the state decision to disarm Hezbollah by force? We urgently need scenario analysis given the gravity of the situation. Would disarming them be better if the fallout resembled the 1958 or May 2008 conflicts, rather than facing Israel's nihilistic destruction and occupation? Naturally, risking a war like the 1975-1990 conflict alters those calculations. Regardless, as our situation significantly worsens, a technical analysis is essential to determine the least harmful decision.
16 March 2026 18:34