Hezbollah calculations, Israel's strategy, Cabinet's room for maneuver: Our deputy editor-in-chief, Rita Sassine, answers your questions

Thank you for joining us

That’s it for today.

Once again, we apologize for not being able to answer all your questions. But we will be launching another Q&A session soon.

In the meantime, you can follow our live coverage of the war in Lebanon here.

Thank you all, and see you soon!

Will's UNFIL's mandate be renewed?

Nabil: Hello, Ms. Sassine,

The Israeli army appears to want to cast a wide net and see its plans through, such as the creation of a buffer zone along the border with Lebanon. Will the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), whose mandate is due to expire soon, be called on again to remain on the ground, or will it be replaced by the Lebanese Army?

R.S.: Hello, Nabil! Thank you for your question. In my view, UNIFIL's mandate will not be renewed. Israel and the U.S. have done everything to ensure that its mandate ends, considering that it has not done enough against Hezbollah.

What Israel is seeking is a peace agreement that it will try to impose on Lebanon or, at the very least, a security arrangement that would guarantee it a calm border, and not only in the short term.

The suspension of the meetings of the mechanism follows the same logic: supervision of the cease-fire is not its goal. Its goal is to launch direct talks with Lebanon under U.S. mediation.

Is it possible that the conflict could last and expand to all of Lebanon if the Lebanese Army implements Hezbollah's disarmament?

Pierrick Poisson: Hello, thank you for your excellent work.

Is it possible that the conflict could last and expand to all of Lebanon if the Lebanese Army implements Hezbollah's disarmament? Thank you very much!

R.S.: Hello Pierrick, thank you for your support and for being here! No one can predict Hezbollah’s actions. But I believe we have reached a point where we can no longer remain passive out of fear of reprisals.

The Lebanese state has committed to the monopoly of arms, and Hezbollah is part of the government that adopted this decision.

With regard to the international community, we no longer have the luxury of ambiguity. In fact, we never did — and yet we have been dragged into a new destructive war because we believed otherwise.

To what extent can Hezbollah’s position of reigniting the Israeli front serve the Shiite community in Lebanon’s institutional debate?

Patrice Gilardoni: Good evening. To what extent can Hezbollah’s position of reigniting the Israeli front serve — or fail to serve — the Shiite community in the Lebanese institutional debate that seemed to be taking shape?

R.S.: Good evening, Patrice! Your question is essential. Hezbollah has harmed the Shiite community by once again making it pay the price for its military ventures, at a time when it had not yet recovered from the previous war.

I still hold a slight hope that this time it will be the war too many for Hezbollah’s most unconditional supporters. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will have a major role to play in this regard: saving his community, supporting and guiding it toward the institutions.

What do you see as the endgame for Hezbollah?

Eduardo Zegaib: Hi. What do you see as the endgame for Hezbollah? It’s clear that for Iran, it's 100% survival, all or nothing. How will it impact Lebanon? Do you see any risk of civil war?

R.S.: Good evening, Eduardo. Thank you for your question. In fact, you could say this is Hezbollah’s last war. It will try to hold out as long as it has not received orders from Iran to dissolve its military wing.

In the same way, this is also Iran’s final war. As long as we do not have a clear view of the outcome of the war between Iran and the United States, we cannot be certain about what will come next.

What is certain, however, is that Israel will do everything it can to take advantage of this moment and destroy the party’s capabilities. And it is up to the Lebanese state and the Lebanese Army to truly enforce the principle that the state alone holds weapons, without fearing the threat of civil war that is raised every time to deter them.

Doesn't Israel want to turn Lebanon into a de facto protectorate and, in the long term, within 10 years, annex the territory as it is doing in the West Bank?

Noor: Israel demands, under the pretext of cease-fire agreements, strict control of Hezbollah's weapons, but at the same time, Israel opposes the Lebanese Army being a strong and powerful army on its northern borders!

Doesn't Israel want to turn Lebanon into a de facto protectorate and, in the long term, within 10 years, annex the territory as it is doing in the West Bank?

Why don't the pseudo-Western chancelleries form a wall via some kind of intervention force to stop the massacre? What are Arab states doing?

R.S.: Good evening, Noor. Thank you for your question. Indeed, this is our dilemma.

We are the weak link in this neighborly relationship. Israel will never accept Hezbollah at its doorstep. And for it to accept the Lebanese Army, it must be within the framework of a peace agreement between the two countries.

Until such an agreement is signed, no international power will ensure that the Lebanese Army is a reinforced army.

As for Western chancelleries and Arab countries, they are currently unable to intervene. France attempted to mediate but quickly ran into American red lines. As for Arab countries, in my opinion, their priority today is to stop Iranian attacks on their territories.

Was the scale of the Israeli army’s victory exaggerated?

The Gabe: While the Israeli army was supposed to have inflicted a monumental defeat on Hezbollah a year and a half ago, how can it be explained that today the militia’s missile and drone fire has resumed with the same intensity as in November 2024, and that the Israelis are still trying to drive militants out of the same border villages as before? Was the scale of the Israeli army’s victory exaggerated?
Thank you!

R.S.: Good evening, The Gabe, thank you for your question! In my opinion — though it is not based on any specific information — Iran may have helped Hezbollah rebuild its forces. If the party did not get involved in the June war against Iran, it is simply because it was not yet ready.

Since the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Iran has taken matters back into their own hands within the party. Israeli threats against officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fall within this context. But has the party rebuilt itself enough to withstand Israeli air power for long? I am not sure.

I also take the opportunity, through your question, to point out that to understand how Hezbollah evolved and how it transformed its community and Lebanon, how it became at its peak a major regional player, and how it ultimately lost everything, we have compiled here a series of articles drawn from our archives.

Has the south of the Litani been “cleared” or not? Were we lied to? And if so, by whom and why?

Nada: What really happened over the past year? A month ago, we were told that the south of the Litani had been “cleared” and that the Lebanese Army would move north of the Litani.

The ambassadors of the Quintet toured the area during 2025 and seemed rather satisfied, despite the slow pace of the work, according to what they said.

Yet now Hezbollah fires six rockets from an unknown location (north or south of the Litani?), and Israel heavily attacks border villages as if party members and their weapons were still there.

Has the south of the Litani been “cleared” or not? Were we lied to? And if so, by whom and why?

R.S.: Good evening, Nada! You are asking the question everyone is asking. We all have the feeling that we were misled, not by the ambassadors, because diplomacy is a language that varies depending on circumstances, but by the state and the Lebanese Army.

Let us say that even if on the first day the six rockets were fired from north of the Litani, Hezbollah is not currently fighting from there. Why hide the reality from us? In my opinion, the state and the army believed they could still buy time. And they had wrongly placed their trust in Hezbollah.

What is happening to the Lebanese Army in all this chaos?

Simone de Chadarévian: Hello and warm greetings from Canada, Rita, and to all the journalists of L’Orient-Le Jour, of whom we have always been proud.

What is happening to the Lebanese Army in all this chaos? How is it intervening? We heard that the first phase of Hezbollah’s “disarmament” had taken place. Where do things stand at this stage of chaos and Israel’s terrible attacks? Thank you. You are in our hearts and prayers. Stay strong!

R.S. Hello Simone, thank you — on behalf of the entire editorial team — for your support! It gives us strength to continue in these difficult times.

To answer your question, I will try to choose my words carefully, because the subject is quite delicate. The Lebanese Army now finds itself with its back against the wall.

Since the 2024 cease-fire, the measures taken have not been sufficient to spare us this second round. If Hezbollah can still fire rockets toward Israel, it means the south of the Litani has not yet been fully demilitarized.

And for this war to end, the army will have an important role to play: asserting itself as the only legitimate force in Lebanon.

But how can it do that as long as Hezbollah vows not to surrender its arsenal without an order from Iran, which does not appear to be on the agenda? That is the real question and the real problem.

Could Israel go beyond a buffer zone and invade Lebanon?

Anne-Sophie: Hello Rita, and thank you for your work. I have no illusions — Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are not waging this war for peace and freedom. Everything is moving so fast.
Here are my questions: Could Israel go beyond establishing a buffer zone and invade Lebanon? What would the long-term consequences be?

Jules: Hello. Thank you for your work. Is the occupation of the South “forever” (to use the words of an Israeli official)? Is the creation of a buffer zone still avoidable at this stage?

R.S.: Hello Anne-Sophie, hello Jules — your questions are fundamental. You have put pressure on the wound. Israel will almost certainly impose a buffer zone in south Lebanon. In my view, this scenario is even more likely now than in 2024. However, they have no interest in reoccupying the South and engaging in a war of attrition.

Ultimately, what they want is to impose their conditions on Lebanon, namely a peace agreement and security arrangements, based on their red lines.

How can I know if the road to the airport is safe?

Elisabeth: How can I know if the road to the airport is safe? I have to leave with my children in two days and I don't want to put them in danger.

R.S.: Hello Elisabeth, I completely understand your concern. For the moment, Lebanon received assurances that Beirut airport and the road leading to it will not be attacked.

The Lebanese government is continuing its diplomatic efforts to ensure that this red line is not crossed. Unless Israel changes its calculations, which is still a possibility, I have to admit.

What is the real impact of the Iranian attacks on Israel?

Zeidan: What is the real impact of the Iranian attacks on Israel? There must be a huge gap between the glorious announcements and reality. What is the real situation?

R.S.: Hello Zeidan, thank you for joining us. Hezbollah seems to have regained strength. But not enough to hold out in the long run, I think. Especially since the blows it has been taking for the past four days have been enormous. And we are still at the beginning of the war.

But whatever its capabilities, real or imagined, Hezbollah will not be able to back down. Not until Iran has settled its problem with the U.S.

We will have an article on this subject this evening. So stay tuned!

What does France's diplomatic action consist of?

Christian Halaby: What does France's diplomatic action consist of? Did it really prevent a large-scale attack in Beirut on Thursday night?

R.S.: Hello Christian, thank you for joining us.

France did indeed attempt mediation, calling for Hezbollah to cease fire and for Israel to suspend its operations in return. But for the moment, it has not been successful.

The time is not yet right for negotiations for either side, especially Tel Aviv. And as long as the issue of Hezbollah's complete disarmament is not on the table, I don't see any chance for diplomacy at the moment, unfortunately.

To learn more about this subject, I suggest you read this article by Mounir Rabih: War in Lebanon: Diplomacy stalls, Israel continues its offensive.

US Embassy in Lebanon: Is there a risk?

We're starting with a question from Giorgio:

Giorgio: I live near the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon (about 100 meters away). Since the first day of the war, it has been on high alert, and we have been worried it could be targeted by Iran, as is happening in Gulf countries. In your opinion, given the current situation and the way events are unfolding, do you think this scenario is possible?

Rita Sassine: Thank you, Giorgio, for your question. The U.S. Embassy has indeed been evacuated to avoid this scenario, especially since other embassies in the region have been targeted. However, we do not have any further information on this subject.

Hello and welcome! Our deputy editor-in-chief, Rita Sassine, will be answering your questions here live.

You still can reach out to us in the comment section of this article or send them to livechatolj@lorientlejour.com

She will answer them here starting 6 p.m., Beirut time.

See you then!