The American envoy, Morgan Ortagus, in Baabda, on Feb. 7, 2025. (Credit: Lebanese presidency X account)
Morgan Ortagus, the American envoy to Lebanon, gave an interview on Thursday evening to the local channel LBCI, where she was asked about the impact of President Donald Trump's visit to the Middle East and some of his significant statements, such as the lifting of sanctions against Syria. "President Trump decided that his first overseas visit during his term would be to the Middle East, which shows the importance he places on this region, the Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia in particular," she said. "Whatever the challenges in the Middle East, we will work closely with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to solve them," she emphasized. When asked about Lebanon, Ortagus highlighted that "both the United States and Gulf countries have been clear with this country: The path to unprecedented prosperity lies in the disarmament of Hezbollah, not just south of the Litani but throughout the entire territory."
On the impact on Lebanon of lifting the sanctions against Syria, the American diplomat was categorical: "Lebanon could learn from [Syrian President Ahmad] al-Sharaa and how he collaborated with Saudi Arabia to engage with President Trump and our team to demonstrate the benefits of lifting sanctions against his country." She added, "I believe Sharaa understands that the path Syria must take does not involve war with its neighbors, whether it's Lebanon or Israel, or any other country. He has understood that he needs to seek peace."
This statement comes as the events in the region are evolving at a very rapid pace. Syria seems to be the most concerned by these developments, based on the measures it is taking, which have resulted in President Ahmad al-Sharaa's visit to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with Donald Trump. This meeting was initially supposed to include Lebanon, but it did not occur. Since the preparations for this tripartite summit, it was planned to be quadripartite with the participation of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. No clear response has been given about his absence, and there is speculation about whether it reflects an intent to hold Lebanon accountable for its delay in joining this new regional dynamic. Indeed, it seems that Lebanon is still awaiting the repercussions of these regional developments on itself, particularly the outcome of the Iranian-American dialogue. Opinions are divided on this issue. Some believe Tehran could, in the case of an agreement, ask Hezbollah to disarm. The party, on the other hand, bets on the fact that this scenario would help relieve it and allow it to retain its weapons, as long as this political agreement ensures security and stability in southern Lebanon.
International decision
Meanwhile, what is known is now extremely clear and publicly declared by the United States. Trump clearly expressed that it is necessary to be free from Hezbollah's grip. Ortagus also affirmed that Hezbollah must be disarmed throughout the Lebanese territory. Lebanon is aware that a major international decision has been made on this issue. Within Hezbollah, some recognize this reality, while others refuse even to consider such a possibility.
The responsibility is therefore shifted onto the Lebanese state and what it can undertake to achieve this objective. In this context, the army continues its mission south of the Litani River, notably operations of seizing and retrieving weapons. It is noteworthy that about 90 percent of Hezbollah's military infrastructure in this area has already been dismantled. Signals have been sent to Lebanon, encouraging it to announce the results achieved so far and to soon proclaim the complete end of dismantling operations and weapons removal south of the river.
It is expected that international pressure will increase to extend the search and dismantling operations north of the Litani River during a second phase. However, Hezbollah categorically rejects this step for now. Lebanon, for its part, fears a direct confrontation between Hezbollah and the army. This phase is therefore tied to continuing a dialogue or calm debate with the party, in accordance with the vision of the Lebanese President. According to our information, this dialogue should intensify after the municipal elections, with the involvement of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who would play a mediator role to define a general framework aiming to confine the weapons to state hands only.
At this stage, Hezbollah sets its own priorities for this dialogue. It demands first the full withdrawal of Israel from Lebanese territories. Then, it seeks guarantees against any military strike or assassination operation. Finally, according to it, the Palestinian arsenal's dismantling in Lebanon should be addressed. Ultimately, the process could lead to the development of a national defense strategy where Hezbollah's arms would be placed under state authority. However, Hezbollah's priorities are completely misaligned with those of the United States. According to our information, U.S. pressure will intensify to disarm Hezbollah before any Israeli withdrawal. Washington justifies this by stating that Israelis fear for their inhabitants' safety, which explains their refusal to leave the five hills still occupied in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed.
Ortagus indeed set the tone in her interview. In response to a question, she noted that it is not the Israeli occupation of these five points, despite the November 2024 cease-fire, that serves as justification for Hezbollah to keep its weapons. "This party did not need justification to arm itself during the last 40 years, and over the last 20 years, it has dragged the Lebanese, particularly the southern people, against their will, into two destructive wars with Israel," she said.
Ortagus returns
In this context, Lebanon awaits Ortagus's return, anticipated towards the end of this month. Sources indicate that this visit will focus on evaluating the progress made by the army so far, announcing the completion of work south of the Litani, and moving on to the north. Additionally, conditions will be set regarding the army's deployment north of the Litani, particularly on main roads, with the establishment of fixed or mobile posts on all routes Hezbollah could use to rebuild its military capabilities or transport weapons. Ortagus will also emphasize the reform program and the need for its adoption, according to the same source.
In summary, what is required of Lebanon internationally is clear: to adopt the necessary reforms, achieve the state's monopoly on arms, then engage in negotiations aiming to "establish peace," according to Trump's objective, while Lebanon persists in highlighting its readiness to respect the 1949 Armistice Agreement. To Ortagus, the Abraham Accords are "a great achievement of Trump's first term." "His policy is one of peace, that is why he asked us to negotiate with Iran," she told LBCI. "We want peace for everyone, not just for Lebanon. But peace can only come with strength, and in this sense, I think he will be a historic president, and President [Joseph] Aoun can be as well."
This article was translated from L'Orient-Le Jour.
