American President Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2025. (Credit: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP)
The fragile cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, now in effect for three weeks, is on the verge of collapse as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump increase pressure on the Palestinian group. Emboldened by support from Washington, Netanyahu has set a Saturday noon deadline for Hamas to release remaining hostages, without specifying a number, warning that failure to comply would lead to an immediate resumption of hostilities.
"The cease-fire will end, and the Israeli army will resume intense fighting until Hamas is definitively defeated," Netanyahu said in a video message Tuesday. His ultimatum follows Trump’s own threats that "hell" would be unleashed if Hamas did not release the remaining captives.
According to Palestinian political analyst Reham Owda, while tensions are rising now, the war in Gaza never truly stopped, as the terms of the agreement were not upheld. "We are still in the first phase of the cease-fire agreement, with Hamas and Israel evaluating their outcomes before deciding on the second phase," she said. "Tel Aviv has not yet fully met its commitments, particularly regarding the delivery of essential humanitarian aid — such as shelters, water and electricity — to the Gaza Strip. That is why Hamas announced it would delay the next hostage release."
Owda also pointed to Trump's recent remarks, in which he called for the relocation of Gazans to Egypt and Jordan, as a key factor in Hamas’ decision. "Hamas wants to send a clear message to both Netanyahu and Trump: it still holds a powerful bargaining tool with the Israeli hostages, and it will not leave Gaza or allow its leaders to be relocated, no matter the proposed plan."
Trump’s influence on Israeli decision-making
In Israel, Washington’s support is driving calls for escalation. A senior Israeli official, cited by Axios on Tuesday, described a "feeling of intoxication" within the cabinet, "as if all our problems in Gaza were now resolved because Trump spoke."
During a recent military strategy meeting, Netanyahu reportedly gave a lengthy speech on what he saw as a "great opportunity" following Trump’s remarks. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, encouraged by Washington’s shift in tone, pushed for immediate military action, urging Israel to "retake Rafah immediately."
According to Khalil Sayegh, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hamas is acutely aware of these shifting dynamics. "Hamas understands that Netanyahu and Trump are discussing a post-war scenario in which Hamas no longer exists," he said. "Their decision to suspend the hostage agreement aimed partly at forcing Netanyahu to begin the second phase of negotiations, where they could influence the political outcome."
Meanwhile, the Israeli army announced Monday that it is preparing for all scenarios. Two reserve battalions, special forces and engineering corps units have been mobilized, and tanks have been repositioned in Gaza areas still under Israeli control. The Israeli military says these measures are defensive but could quickly shift to an offensive if fighting resumes. However, Sayegh suggested Hamas believes Israel is not as prepared to re-engage militarily as it claims. "Hamas probably thinks now is the right time to put pressure on Israel, which has already withdrawn significant forces from Gaza. Their return would take time," he said.
Owda sees Hamas’s approach as part of a broader psychological war. "Trump is deliberately raising tensions with his provocative statements on Gaza, hoping to pressure Hamas into leaving," she said.
Netanyahu’s ultimatum places Hamas in a difficult position, increasing the risk of disruption. Some Israeli officials fear the next hostage release may not go as planned. "The chances of a hostage release on Saturday have significantly diminished. This is very worrying," an Israeli security official told Axios. "We hope the mediators will understand the situation and save the agreement."
