The fall of Assad’s regime: What’s next for Syria and the region? Our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani, answered your questions

That's the end of this live Q&A with our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani!
Thank you for all your questions, and we look forward to seeing you again soon. In the meantime, you can stay updated with all the latest news from the region, right here.

And a question from Beatriz:
There are many expectations surrounding the return of Syrian refugees from Lebanon to Syria. But is it likely that there will also be a significant new flow of Syrians into Lebanon?

Hello Beatriz, thank you for your question.
Could loyalist Syrians cross the border in the opposite direction? Possibly. However, for now, let's wait a few days. The fall of the regime should facilitate the return of Syrian refugees.

We continue with this question from Jean-Paul Belaich:
Much like Lebanon, Syria is also a mosaic of people and religious practices that are more or less present: Sunnis, Shiites, Druze, Kurds, Christians... How would you assess the risk that the country could be governed by fear and repression again? Can we hope that the Syrians in power will not be tempted again by an Iranian-Russian pact that led to their downfall, but instead build ties with the West?

Hello Jean-Paul Belaich, thank you for your question,
The risk is significant for two reasons. The first is that it is not possible to turn the page overnight after five decades of tyranny and repression. This leaves deep scars in people's minds. The second is the nature of the HTS movement and its leader, who is far from being a Swedish social democrat. That said, freedom of speech has been on the rise in Syria for over a decade, and the Syrians have demonstrated considerable political maturity. HTS will necessarily have to adapt to this evolution.

The following questions are from Gerta Zaimi:
The offensive must have required extensive preparation in military, organizational, and political aspects for HTS. Such an organization cannot be created without substantial economic, military, and political support. In your opinion, which powerful states are supporting HTS, given that it is currently the most significant and powerful force in Syria?
What are the possible options for governance in Syria?

Hello Gerta Zaimi, thank you for your question,
Officially, no state supports HTS. Behind the scenes, I think — though without proof — they have received support from Turkey. For now, Jolani shows that he is a formidable political animal. He is doing everything to gain the trust of the West, Syrians, minorities, etc. However, let’s not be fooled: HTS is a jihadist organization with the long-term goal of ‘jihadizing’ Syria, meaning primarily to conquer minds and show pragmatism until then. First, we need to see if they can govern the entire country, what will happen with the Alawites in the west, and the Kurds in the east and north. The regime they established in Idlib was authoritarian but not dictatorial, Islamist but not fundamentalist: can they replicate this on a larger scale in Syria?

We continue with this question from Mark Habbouche:
Could Israel take advantage of the chaos in Syria to invade certain areas of southern Syria and strategically encircle southern Lebanon? If so, what consequences would this maneuver have for Hezbollah?

Hello Mark Habbouche, thank you for being here,
History is moving so fast in the region that all possible scenarios must be considered. That said, I don’t think so. I believe that Israel could, however, conduct ground operations in Syria to take control of what remains of Assad’s chemical weapons and prevent the rebels from seizing them.

Here’s a question from Habib Maaz:
Will Lebanon be able to denounce all the ‘agreements’ with Syria that were imposed by force: the agreement on the waters of the Assi River, security and university collaborations, and all the other advantages granted to Syria without any compensation?

Hello Habib Maaz, thank you for being here,
A new world is opening up for Syrian-Lebanese relations. What will it look like? No idea. However, I find it hard to believe it could be worse than it has been in the past.

Before the fall of Assad, we had explained why no one, from Washington to Moscow, wanted to see him fall.

Before the fall of Assad, we had explained why no one, from Washington to Moscow, wanted to see him fall.

Here's Vivien Audi's question:
Who, or which regime, was able to move the pieces in Syria just after the cease-fire in Lebanon?

Hello Vivien Audi, thank you for your question,
It’s important to understand that the vast majority of actors wanted Bashar al-Assad to sever his ties with Iran but considered the regime to be the lesser evil. This is true for the United States, Israel, and the Arab countries. Therefore, I think it’s essential not to overestimate the role of external powers in what happened, as evidenced by their current concerns, with the exception of Turkey. Ankara appears to have played a significant role in supporting this offensive, but we don’t yet have all the details. To what extent did Abou Mohammad al-Jolani, the main winner in this situation on the Syrian stage, coordinate with the Turks, with whom his relations had been very poor in recent years? For now, we have conflicting information on this matter.

The next question is from Nouhad Ajaltouni:
Will we finally be at peace when everyone is at war? Because, in my humble opinion, it is now the turn of Iraq, as well as Iran and the Kurdish State.

Hello Nouhad Ajaltouni, thank you for your question,
In my view, we will only find peace when we first decide to be at peace on our Lebanese scale. Geopolitical factors certainly have a significant impact, and the weakening of the Iranian axis and the fall of the Syrian regime could open up positive prospects for Lebanon. However, Israeli extremism and the bleak horizon on the Palestinian issue are very concerning, including for us. But above all, it depends on us and our ability to understand that Lebanon is our only salvation.

Patrice Gilardoni asks:
What is the current situation in the western provinces of Syria, along the Mediterranean? Are they still under the control of the ousted regime?

Hello Patrice Gilardoni, thank you for joining us,
The rebel forces have not yet entered the Alawite stronghold. There are likely ongoing negotiations. This is an important issue to avoid massacres, given the sectarian tensions and the fact that a number of military and political figures responsible for the repression of the Syrian people have likely taken refuge there.

Patrice Gilardoni asks:
What is the current situation in the western provinces of Syria, along the Mediterranean? Are they still under the control of the ousted regime?

Hello Patrice Gilardoni, thank you for joining us,
The rebel forces have not yet entered the Alawite stronghold. There are likely ongoing negotiations. This is an important issue to avoid massacres, given the sectarian tensions and the fact that a number of military and political figures responsible for the repression of the Syrian people have likely taken refuge there.

Here is Sophie Picard Fakhouri's question:
What will the impact of this fall be on Lebanon? Could it challenge the cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel?

Hello Sophie Picard Fakhouri,
It is still too early to have a comprehensive view, but what can already be said is that the fall of the Assad regime will significantly weaken Hezbollah, facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, and potentially improve relations between our two countries. I do not think it will directly challenge the cease-fire; the real question is how Hezbollah will react to everything that has happened in recent months. Will it choose to negotiate its political survival within Lebanese institutions, or will it, on the contrary, take a harder stance to preserve its gains on this stage?

After the fall of Assad, Hezbollah is indeed more vulnerable than ever. Find Salah Hijazi's analysis here.

The next question is from J-M Z:
Since the new Syrian government is said to have the intention of blocking overland arms shipments from Iran, what will be the reliable alternatives for Hezbollah?

As of now, there are no viable alternatives. This is especially true if the port and airport of Beirut are closely monitored by the Lebanese authorities. The fall of the Assad regime is a major blow to Hezbollah and Iran, as Syria was the linchpin of the ‘axis of resistance.’ They are the biggest losers of this situation. More broadly, Iran is losing all its potential fronts against Israel, namely Gaza, southern Lebanon, and now Syria.

To understand why the Syrian regime surrendered without a fight, we suggest reading this article.

A first question from Rayane:
How did things unfold over the past few days: how was such a turnaround possible without a real conflict?

Hello everyone, hello Rayane, and thank you for being with us today,
I think we first need to be clear that we do not yet have all the elements to fully understand everything that happened. We know that this shift is the result of a double dynamic. On the local scene: the Syrian army is in shambles, and the armed opposition has been preparing for years.
On the geopolitical side: the regime’s allies (Iran and Russia) were more weakened than ever on the Syrian ground, while Turkey likely saw this as an opportunity to create a new balance of power.
Given these conditions, the rebels’ victory is understandable. What is less so is its speed. Why did neither the Russians, the Iranians, nor the Syrian army fight? We can hypothesize several explanations: they were caught completely off guard, they were not willing to die for Assad, and there were likely political and diplomatic negotiations — not necessarily beforehand, but during the offensive.
It is worth noting that part of the Syrian high command, mainly Alawites, retreated to Tartous and Latakia. It is very likely that these people refused to surrender without a fight.

We will begin this new Q&A session with our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani.
As a reminder, you can send your questions to the following address: livechatolj@lorientlejour.com.

Hello everyone!

Today at 12 p.m., Beirut time, our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani, will be here to answer all your questions about the fall of the Assad regime and its repercussions across the region and beyond.

You can send your questions now to the following address: livechatolj@lorientlejour.com.