People walk past a poster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian capital Damascus on Dec. 2, 2024. (Credit: Louai Beschara/AFP)
Since the launch of the rebel offensive in Syria last Wednesday, speculation has abounded, with each party attempting to interpret the unfolding events through its own geopolitical lens.Despite the Syrian regime appearing weaker than ever, no external actor — whether among its backers, rivals or adversaries — seems prepared to see it fall. The context is no longer the same as it was in 2011. Fatigue over calls for regime change is widespread, and the prevailing priority now is stability.From Moscow’s perspective, a degree of distancing from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is evident. Yet, Russia has no alternative to him and continues to shield his regime, albeit without committing the same level of resources as it did in 2015, when Russian intervention rescued Assad from a dire situation and helped suppress the rebellion.Leading up to...
Since the launch of the rebel offensive in Syria last Wednesday, speculation has abounded, with each party attempting to interpret the unfolding events through its own geopolitical lens.Despite the Syrian regime appearing weaker than ever, no external actor — whether among its backers, rivals or adversaries — seems prepared to see it fall. The context is no longer the same as it was in 2011. Fatigue over calls for regime change is widespread, and the prevailing priority now is stability.From Moscow’s perspective, a degree of distancing from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is evident. Yet, Russia has no alternative to him and continues to shield his regime, albeit without committing the same level of resources as it did in 2015, when Russian intervention rescued Assad from a dire situation and helped suppress the rebellion.Leading...