We live in a region that has known almost nothing but violence for decades, where massacres answer massacres, where populations are repressed, displaced, tortured and annihilated. Where history is pulverized, millennia-old cities are crushed, and only the law of the strongest and impunity prevails.
The Arab world was dead. Syria was its tomb, and Gaza the final nail in its coffin. And suddenly, hope emerges — perhaps from where we least expected it.
One of the most criminal regimes in the world, which has killed hundreds of thousands, disappeared tens of thousands, gassed its own population, and burned and sold its country to cling to power, has survived only through the support of the so-called 'axis of decline' and the Russian ogre on one side and, on the other, the abandonment and cowardice of the West — has just fallen, without massacres. This detail, this “without massacres,” is important, surprising, and makes this moment even more historic.
Of course, there are countless unknowns and reasons to be concerned. The group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), despite its tactical transformation and cosmetic veneer, remains jihadist and fundamentalist. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, currently shows remarkable political savvy in seizing power, but one must not be naive about his true intentions and the nature of his movement.
The same applies to Turkey, which appears to have provided massive support for this offensive and does not hide its ambitions to crush Kurdish forces, create a security zone in northern Syria, and perhaps pursue imperialist aims.
The stakes are numerous. How can a bloodbath between rebel forces and the remnants of the Syrian army entrenched in the Alawite enclave — a region where sectarian tensions are likely to be most intense — be avoided? How can a civil war between Kurds and insurgents be prevented, given that the Kurds govern large swaths of the east and north of the country? What will Russian forces do? And Hezbollah, which has carried out demographic engineering to seize entire neighborhoods?
This is not the end of history. After decades of dictatorship and bloody repression — after the son has both completed and destroyed his father’s legacy, and in such a geopolitical context — it is almost certain that the country will still face shocks, divisions, instability, and violence.
The international community, or what remains of it, has a critical role to play in ensuring a peaceful transition so Syria can begin to heal its wounds.
Tomorrow will bring fears, anxieties, calculations and perhaps the return of disillusionment — a feeling we have become all too familiar with in Lebanon and the region. Revolutions or power transitions rarely end well in the Middle East, and the specter of political Islamism is frightening.
But today — just today — we can only celebrate what happened. The liberation of Syrian prisoners, the joy of families reunited with loved ones who disappeared decades ago, the hope of dissidents and refugees in the Middle East and Europe who now see the possibility of returning home after fleeing their land in heartbreak — this obliges us.
The political maturity shown — for now — by the opposition and, more broadly, by the Syrian people, who have endured the worst atrocities imaginable, obliges us.
The struggle of all those assassinated by this regime obliges us. How can we not think of them today? Michel Seurat, Kamal Jumblatt, Bachir Gemayel, Rafik Hariri, Samir Kassir, Abdel-Basset al-Sarout, Mazen al-Hamada, and hundreds of thousands of others.
The future may not be rosy, but nothing could be worse than the "state of barbarism." For Syrians and the region — the Lebanese know this well.
This is a lesson for all autocrats in the Middle East and beyond, for those who normalized relations with the regime or considered doing so in the name of so-called stability that never existed. For those who yielded to its horrific blackmail claiming "Assad or chaos," ignoring that he was and always has been the primary source of chaos. To all of them, Syrians have proven that while revolutions can be suppressed, stifled, or strangled, they can never be permanently killed. There is a deep demand for change across the region that many have tried to stifle, but it has now exploded.
Everything remains so fragile, and the domino effect is likely not over. Assad’s fall will have repercussions in Lebanon, Iraq and perhaps even Iran. The Iranian axis is collapsing across the region, and this shift is likely to be extremely violent. Erdogan’s Turkey is the big winner in this sequence, positioning itself as the only power capable of challenging the emerging Israeli hegemony in the Middle East.
None of these events might have happened without Oct. 7. Yahya Sinwar dragged all his allies down with him. But the deluge of Al-Aqsa also led to an unprecedented wave of violence, even in Syria, in the Palestinian enclave. Even in such a moment, we cannot forget what happened in Gaza. It bears repeating: everything is interconnected — Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine especially.
Just as nothing could have happened without the fall of the Syrian regime, nothing can be stabilized or calmed without the creation of a Palestinian state. Now, Israel can no longer hide behind the Iranian threat.
For the first time since the Arab Spring, it has become possible — despite a decade of descent into hell and with eyes wide open — to believe that justice exists and that all who gave their lives for the Syrian cause did not die in vain.
It is time for justice to finally prevail in Palestine as well.