U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein during a meeting with outgoing Prime Minister Nagib Mikati on Jan. 11, 2024, at the Grand Serail in Beirut. (Credit: Joseph Eid/AFP Archives Photo)
In his first address as Hezbollah’s Secretary-General on Wednesday, Naim Qassem stated that the "ongoing diplomatic efforts" to end the war in Lebanon would not succeed. “The U.S. election will be a turning point,” he suggested. “The newly elected president may tell [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu that enough is enough and that the war must end,” he said. The head of the Hezbollah argued that only military pressure would push Israel to step back, declaring readiness for "weeks and months" of confrontation.
But just hours after his speech, numerous positive signals about a potential truce, or even a cease-fire, began emerging from various sources, starting with the Israeli press. Channel 13 reported, citing Israeli and U.S. officials, that a breakthrough had been made on the Lebanon issue. Israeli radio went further, claiming that the army would withdraw from southern Lebanon within a week. Almost simultaneously, the Israeli public broadcaster KAN published what it presented as the proposed cease-fire plan for Lebanon, dated October 26.
This proposal calls on Israel and Lebanon to implement U.N. resolutions 1701 and 1559. According to the document, Israel would commit to withdrawing its forces from Lebanon within seven days of the cease-fire’s start. The Lebanese army would begin deploying as Israeli forces withdraw. Full implementation of the plan would be completed during a 60-day cease-fire period. However, the White House later clarified that "many reports and proposals are circulating and do not reflect the current state of negotiations."
On the Lebanese side, outgoing Prime Minister Nagib Mikati also expressed cautious optimism. In an interview with al-Jadeed, he said he “cautiously” hoped for a cease-fire “in the coming hours,” which was later adjusted to “coming days” in the verbatim released by his press office.
Is this an Israeli-American bluff aimed at placing the ball in Lebanon’s court, or an unexpected breakthrough? Today’s visit of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein to Tel Aviv may provide an answer.
