A man on a motorcycle looks at a building that was destroyed during an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern village of Zeita a day earlier, on Oct. 14, 2024. (Credit: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP)
BEIRUT — Hezbollah released a statement on Thursday night, following the death of the leader of it ally in Gaza, announcing that it would soon be moving into a "new phase of escalation in the confrontation with the Israeli enemy."
"Developments" in this new phase of escalation will be seen "in the coming days," the party said.
In the same statement, which came from its "Field Operations Chamber," Hezbollah announced having carried out an attack using precision missiles for the first time since fighting began last October. Statements from the chamber started being released shortly after Israel launched its ground offensive in southern Lebanon.
On Oct. 11, the same Hezbollah communications body warned Israelis to "stay away from military sites" located in residential areas in the north of the country, including major cities such as Haifa, Tiberias and Acre, where it claimed the Israeli army had established military bases.
The warning sounded very similar to those issued by the Israeli army itself, since Sept. 23, to the inhabitants of the Bekaa, southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Imad Salamey, professor of political science at the Lebanese American University (LAU), told L'Orient Today last week that the expansion of the displacement zone strongly suggests that Hezbollah is "preparing to deploy new weapons or more advanced tactics that could reach deeper into Israeli territory." This may include "longer-range missiles, precision-guided weapons, or drones capable of striking further distances than previously seen," he said, a hypothesis that seems to be taking shape with last night's latest statement.
The Israeli army has killed more than 2,400 people in Lebanon in more than one year of conflict with Hezbollah. After launching intensive airstrikes against Lebanon on Sept. 23, the Israeli army started ground operations inside Lebanese territory a week later.
How will this new phase manifest?
Contacted by L'Orient Today, Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, said that the new phase mentioned by Hezbollah might manifest through the use of new missiles, rockets and drones, and in the way the party conducts its battles along the border.
Instead of "waiting for Israeli soldiers to enter" Lebanese territory, Hezbollah could target Israeli forces as they are attempting to enter, even before they crossed the Blue Line. What's more, Kassir suggested, Hezbollah could start targeting strategic infrastructures instead of concentrating on military bases.
While the party has only ever announced targeting Israeli military positions or weapons manufacturers since Oct. 8, 2023, it has nevertheless repeatedly warned that it would target civilians in retaliation for Israel's targeting of civilians on Lebanese soil and Hezbollah rockets have struck civilian areas in northern Israel.
Asked about the timing chosen by Hezbollah to launch this new phase of escalation, Kassir says he believes it could be linked to "Israel's continued escalation" and the possibility of an "expanded Israeli ground operation," which could be underway, considering the Israeli army has just announced the mobilization of a new reserve brigade along the Lebanese front. The analyst said he expected "significant escalation on both sides of the border in the coming days."
What about the precision missiles?
The party's announcement of the use of "precision-guided" missiles comes at a time when Hezbollah has reported the use of "quality missiles" on at least seven occasions since last Sunday, after announcing during the week two new types of missile that "went into service on Oct. 14."
These missiles, not mentioned by the party before last weekend, targeted positions close to the border, such as Shtoula and Kfar Giladi, on Oct. 17, and were part of an operation that ended up being its deadliest. The explosive drone fired these "quality missiles" on Sunday at the Golani Brigade training base in Benyamina, south of Haifa. The drone when un-intercepted as a result of, Hezbollah said, rockets that it fired as a distraction. Four soldiers were killed and 67 wounded.
Nicholas Blanford, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, pointed out that in recent weeks, Hezbollah has used three different types of ballistic missile: Qader-1, Qader-2 and Nasr-1. Ballistic missiles are first propelled by one or more rockets which can be fired sequentially, propelling the missile through the first stages of its flight. This phase is followed by a non-propelled trajectory phase that culminates at the missile's apogee before descending to reach its target. Ballistic missiles can carry nuclear or conventional warheads.
GPS guidance system added
It is these missiles that Blanford believes may have been "upgraded" by the party to incorporate a GPS guidance system, enabling them to be transformed into precision-guided missiles.
"For example, the Qader-2 could have previously been an unguided rocket but they modified it by putting a GPS guidance system on it to turn it into a precision-guided missile rather than an unguided rocket."
The analysis points out, however, that it is difficult to identify for certain the types of weapon used by the party, being that "very often, different names are used for the same missile."
Earlier this month, missiles expert Shaan Shaikh from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told L'Orient Today that the word "precision" doesn't necessarily have the same definition across the board. "When the U.S. says it has a certain munition that is precision guided, that is a specific label," he explained. "When Iran says it, it typically just means it has some sort of guidance."
On Wednesday, Hezbollah released two videos presenting two of these new weapons, claiming that they were "precision" surface-to-surface missiles: the Qader 2 and the Nasr 1 missile, "developed by Hezbollah engineers" and both having an "accuracy of up to five meters." The Nasr 1 stands out for its ability to "deceive air defense systems," as well as for "the robustness of its system against jamming."
The Qader 2 is used "to strike vital targets" and is distinguished by its "high destruction capacity."