Is the road to Baabda now (a little more) open for Joseph Aoun? This question has arisen in political circles since the resumption of the debate surrounding the presidential election in the wake of the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For the international community, a president must be elected swiftly.

Several local actors, starting with Speaker Nabih Berri (who has dropped the condition of dialogue before the election), as well as major powers, are urging the quick appointment of a consensus candidate for the presidency, an option long associated with the Chief of Staff of the army, a choice supported by the United States.

Washington believes it is the right time to secure the election of a new president in Lebanon, given Hezbollah's weakened position due to Israel. However, in the current context, such an approach might evoke memories of the election of Bachir Gemayel in 1982, when the Christian leader took office just two months after the Israeli invasion in June. This led Gemayel's detractors to denounce "the election of a president on an Israeli tank." More than four decades later, some observers fear a repeat of this scenario, given the war context and the setbacks Hezbollah has faced in recent weeks. Another perspective excludes this possibility, asserting that Hezbollah remains an influential actor with a say in the presidential election, regardless of the ongoing war.

Recently published information by the American website Axios has sparked controversy. "The White House intends to take advantage of the heavy blow dealt to Hezbollah by Israel to push for the election of a president in Lebanon in the coming days," the site reported, adding that Army Chief Joseph Aoun, "supported by the United States and France," is among the presidential candidates.

For several months, the possibility of American support for Aoun's candidacy has been discussed in political and media circles, especially as Washington is considered one of the biggest supporters of the military institution, expected to play a crucial role in the post-war phase.

However, some close to Hezbollah do not see it that way. In an interview with the Lebanon Debate website, Sheikh Sadek Naboulsi, reputedly close to Hezbollah, made it clear: "(The election of) Joseph Aoun will not happen on an American tank."

"These remarks do not reflect the official position of Hezbollah," confided a figure close to the party, who wished to remain anonymous. This individual indicated that "Joseph Aoun was the party's Plan B after Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh."

But could Hezbollah, an avowed enemy of Washington, endorse a candidate favored by the U.S.? "Joseph Aoun has long been on Hezbollah's list of presidential candidates. This was even the case when the Americans supported Jihad Azour (the former finance minister, who had garnered support from the opposition and the Free Patriotic Movement)," said the same source.

In some political circles, it is even argued that the Quintet involved in the Lebanese dossier (United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar) would not oppose the election of the army chief to head the state. This information could not be confirmed by L’Orient-Le Jour on Monday, as the Quintet maintained its official position: it does not interfere in the names of presidential candidates. What matters is that the Lebanese actors reach an agreement and fill the presidential vacuum as soon as possible.

Nevertheless, the latest American overture toward Aoun has divided proponents of the political power. According to our information, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has expressed support for this option, as has the opposition, albeit still unofficially. On the other side, Berri, supported on this point by former leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Joumblatt, has advocated for a "consensus" candidate, which essentially means that since Aoun's candidacy is backed by Washington, it is no longer viable.

In any case, no one is under any illusions. An agreement on the presidency will not materialize without a "yes" from Hezbollah. "It is false to bet on the ongoing war to impose a president on a weakened Hezbollah," Mohammad Obeid, an analyst close to the party, explained to L’Orient-Le Jour, calling for patience until the end of the conflict before discussing this plan.

"I believe it is still very premature to talk about the election because it will not take place until the fighting ends. I find it hard to see (the Speaker) Nabih Berri convening a parliamentary session dedicated to the presidency before the guns fall silent," emphasized Karim Bitar, a political scientist, noting that this has nothing to do with Aoun's persona. "Even if he is the consensus figure that now seems to have the best chance of winning the election," he said.

Moreover, in circles close to the Lebanese Army, there is a categorical exclusion of the army chief accepting to fill the presidential vacuum before ensuring Hezbollah has endorsed such an agreement.

The Bassil obstacle

In any case, we are not there yet. Besides Hezbollah, which is focused on the ground situation, the military institution's leader must still obtain the explicit green light from opposition figures, including the Lebanese Forces. The latter were among the first to propose Aoun's name as a consensus candidate.

"It is true that the army chief could be the subject of a broader agreement. But at this stage, we are not going to let go of Jihad Azour, or at least not until the opposing camp clearly abandons Sleiman Frangieh," said Lebanese Forces spokesperson Charles Jabbour.

This position complicates matters for the general, as the Lebanese Forces hold one of the keys to the principle of "conformity to the national pact" regarding Christian representation. This privilege is shared with his largest Christian adversary, Gebran Bassil's Free Patriotic Movement. While seeking to assert themselves as a decisive player in selecting a consensus candidate, Bassil seems intent on maintaining his veto against Aoun's election, the presidential candidate who could challenge his popular base.

This places Hezbollah in a critical position should an agreement be reached regarding the Aoun option. "The Gebran Bassil of today is not the same as at the beginning of the presidential race," said Obeid, noting that the parliamentary bloc of the Free Patriotic Movement has decreased from 17 to 13 deputies (following recent exclusions and resignations).

"He no longer has the same weight, even though he still carries influence," Obeid pointed out, ruling out the possibility of Hezbollah seeking to accommodate its (former?) ally following the significant strains in their relationship, both due to the presidential election and the ongoing war.

Joseph Aoun, président consensuel… imposé au Hezbollah ?