Strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sept. 27, 2024. (Credit: Ibrahim Amro/AFP)
The body of the Hezbollah leader, killed by the Israeli army on Friday, was extracted from the rubble in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday. His assassination, caused by a barrage of particularly explosive bombs that struck the alleged headquarters of the party, sent shockwaves through Lebanon and the region. It raises numerous questions: How could such an operation succeed? How long was it in preparation? How did Israeli intelligence know of Hassan Nasrallah's presence, having been in hiding for years in a secret location with extremely limited movement?
Minutes before the operation
On Friday, Sept. 27, around 6 p.m., several Israeli planes flew over the sky of the southern suburbs of Beirut. Their target: a block of six buildings in Haret Hreik, identified as Hezbollah's command center. A meeting of high-ranking members was to take place in an underground room approximately 20 meters below the surface, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing sources close to the armed group, the American newspaper reported that the meeting was intended for some members to express their "frustration" over Iran preventing them from responding more vigorously to Israeli attacks. For several days, Israeli forces had been conducting targeted strikes in the southern suburbs to eliminate high-ranking Hezbollah officials.
"Reports reaching Israel indicate that Nasrallah is among the participants," said al-Arabiya, the Saudi national channel, in a reconstruction video. "The man entered this block of six buildings, and Israel does not know in which one the meeting will take place," the media continued.
According to the newspaper Le Parisien, Nasrallah reportedly arrived by car, accompanied by the Iranian commander of the Quds Force, the elite unit of the Revolutionary Guards, while nearby, the funeral of Mohammad Hussein Srour, a Hezbollah drone unit commander killed in an airstrike the day before, was taking place.
"The Israelis, who conduct 24/7 aerial surveillance, are confident in their strike," asserts the French daily, adding: "Israeli intelligence waited until everyone was in the room where the party plans its military operations (...) before ordering the bombing."
A few hours earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been at the United Nations in New York, delivering a speech in a nearly empty hall. "We will not accept a terrorist army perched at our northern border capable of perpetrating another massacre like that of Oct. 7," he had said regarding Lebanon. After his speech, the Israeli leader isolated himself in an office with two advisors. A photo shared an hour after the attack, captures the moment Benjamin Netanyahu, on the phone, gave the green light to launch the operation.
How the operation unfolded
At 6:17 p.m., an explosion shook the ground and resonated in Beirut up to 40 kilometers away. More than 80 bombs were dropped within seconds. After analyzing a video published Saturday on the official Telegram channel of the Israeli army, captioned "Israeli Air Force fighter jets involved in the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah's central headquarters in Lebanon," several international media were able to identify the type of military equipment used in the operation.
The video shows at least eight consecutive planes armed with 900-kilogram bombs. About 15 of them can be identified as the American-made BLU-109 model equipped with a JDAM guidance kit, according to the daily Haaretz. These bombs are known as "bunker busters." They penetrate the ground before exploding, each explosion paving the way for the next.
Exports of this model by the United States had been suspended last May during the Israeli offensive in Rafah, as a new shipment to Israel was planned, with Washington fearing that the use of these extremely destructive bombs would lead to significant civilian casualties in Gaza.
The six buildings in Haret Hreik were pulverized and reduced to a crater approximately 30 meters deep. The chances of survival for those inside the building were zero, and the Israeli army quickly announced Nasrallah's death.
How long had the operation been planned?
According to three high-ranking Israeli defense officials cited by the New York Times, the Israeli leadership had been aware for several months of Nasrallah's location. They decided to strike earlier in the week while Israeli political officials were discussing a possible cease-fire in Lebanon with their American counterparts.
"They believed they had only a short window of opportunity before the Hezbollah leader disappeared to another location," reported the NYT. The operational planning for the attack reportedly took several months, especially as military officials sought to determine how to "breach an underground bunker in southern Beirut with a series of timed explosions," the American daily continued.
However, according to Reuters, Israel's ability to target the Hezbollah leader dates back much further. Citing a source "close to Israeli strategy" who spoke less than 24 hours before the strike, Reuters reported that Israel had spent 20 years focusing its intelligence efforts on Hezbollah and could strike Nasrallah whenever it wanted, including at his headquarters. Benjamin Netanyahu and his close advisors had actually authorized the attack on Wednesday, say two Israeli officials.
According to a particularly scathing analysis in Haaretz regarding Netanyahu, he reportedly hesitated for a long time before approving Nasrallah's assassination, opposing his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was pushing for it. The reason? "He did not want the operation 'new regional order' (the name given by Israel to the operation aimed at eliminating Nasrallah) to be conducted before the end of his 'Shabbat in Manhattan' operation," the journalist referring to the Prime Minister's visit to the United States. Because "it was already clear that the trip was exactly what it was intended to be: a weekend of fun and self-aggrandizement," pointed out Haaretz.
According to the WSJ, the exact timing of the strike constituted an opportunity, Israeli officials indicated. It was ordered when Israeli intelligence learned of the meeting just hours before it occurred. "We had real-time intelligence indicating that Nasrallah was meeting with many high-ranking terrorist officials," an Israeli army spokesperson, Nadav Shoshani, said Saturday. He did not specify how the information reached them but confirmed that Hezbollah leaders had gathered to plan attacks against Israel.
How did Israel learn of Nasrallah's imminent arrival?
On this subject, several theories abound, some suggesting Iranian infiltration. According to a "well-informed Lebanese security source" cited by Le Parisien, an "Iranian mole" transmitted the information to the Israeli army on Friday afternoon. However, according to Reuters, the infiltration by Israeli informants likely came from within the party, which now faces "the enormous challenge of plugging the infiltration in its ranks that has allowed its sworn enemy Israel to destroy weapons sites, compromise its communications, and assassinate the veteran leader, whose location had been a well-kept secret for years."
