A mural depicting the launch of missiles on a representation of a map of Iran, in Tehran, on April 15, 2024. (Credit: AFP)
Amid rising geopolitical tensions and a highly charged electoral environment, new revelations point to Iran as a key player in efforts to disrupt the upcoming U.S. presidential election. While Russia and China have typically been the main suspects, Iran is now emerging as a growing threat.
In a joint statement released on Monday, several U.S. intelligence agencies announced that Tehran was responsible for the hacking of former Republican President Donald Trump's campaign, revealed 10 days ago, as well as an attempted infiltration of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign.
The Islamic Republic swiftly denied these claims through its mission to the United Nations, calling the accusations "unfounded" and urging the United States to provide evidence. Although the U.S. statement did not elaborate further, it noted that "increasingly aggressive Iranian activity has been observed during this election cycle," adding that the election outcome could have significant implications for Iran's national security interests.
Trump and Harris in the crosshairs
As tensions rise in the Middle East, with an Iranian response to the July 31 assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran potentially hinging on the signing of a Gaza truce, the outcome of the U.S. election appears critical. Donald Trump, reportedly a primary target of Iranian interference, is the architect of the Abraham Accords, which aimed to strengthen an anti-Iranian alliance through normalization with Israel. In January 2020, Trump authorized the assassination in Baghdad of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, the elite unit responsible for the external operations of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). His administration also unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Even before the intelligence investigation's findings were released on Monday, Trump had claimed that Iranian agents had hacked his campaign, leading to the leak of sensitive documents to certain media outlets.
In mid-July, the Department of Justice announced that a plot to assassinate Trump, allegedly orchestrated by a Pakistani national with ties to Iran, was uncovered shortly after a failed attempt on the Republican candidate’s life during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. The suspect, arrested while trying to recruit hitmen, had been in contact with undercover FBI agents.
The Islamic Republic has intensified its cyberattacks and influence campaigns, targeting not only Donald Trump's campaign but also that of Kamala Harris. On August 14, Google issued a press release revealing an attempt by APT42, a hacker group reportedly affiliated with the Iranian government, to compromise the campaign accounts of both candidates. APT42, already known for cyberattacks against Israeli officials, is also suspected of orchestrating a widespread disinformation campaign on social media and creating fake news sites aimed at sowing doubt and discord among American voters.
"Iran seeks to sow discord and undermine confidence in our democratic institutions," emphasized a joint statement from the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. The Islamic Republic is believed to be exploiting the polarization of the American electorate, particularly as the Palestinian issue continues to divide society. This is not Iran's first attempt at interference. In 2020, two Iranian hackers were accused of stealing confidential information on American voters and posing as members of a far-right group to intimidate Democratic officials.
Russian and Iranian: A growing alliance in the shadow war?
Since then, as part of the decades-long shadow war between Tehran on one side and Israel and the U.S. on the other, Iran’s methods have become more refined. In recent months, Iran has intensified its cyberattacks, conducting large-scale espionage operations across the Middle East and targeting defense ministries and intelligence agencies in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, according to the Israeli-American cybersecurity firm Check Point, which monitors Iranian cyber activities. The company noted that Iran's recent operations in the Middle East are "significantly more sophisticated than previous activities."
The methods used in the current U.S. election are also reminiscent of those deployed by Russia during the 2016 presidential race. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow and Tehran have significantly strengthened their security and military ties, including weapons trade and the signing of strategic cooperation agreements. The dissemination of internal Democratic National Committee communications by Russian hackers had a major impact on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, leading to a multi-year investigation into Russian interference. However, this time, the major media outlets that received leaked documents from Donald Trump's campaign opted not to publish them, reflecting a heightened vigilance against foreign manipulation attempts.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Tasnim Chaaban.
