Senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh waves after his visit to the house of newly released Palestinian prisoner Rawda Saed (not pictured) in Gaza City Oct. 4, 2009. (Credit: Mohammed Salem/Reuters/File Photo)
The circumstances remain unclear but it's official. Iranian media announced it shortly before 6 a.m., and Hamas quickly confirmed it. The leader of the political branch of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed alongside one of his bodyguards in a strike attributed to Israel at his residence in Tehran, where he had just met the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and attended the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president, Massoud Pezeshkian.
The announcement comes just a few hours after Israel's assassination attempt against Fouad Shukur, a senior Hezbollah commander, in the southern suburbs of Beirut — whose death has not yet been confirmed by the party.
The strike on Beirut's southern suburbs was a response to the Saturday strike on Majdal Shams that killed 12 children in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan, and it broke all rules of engagement and red lines set previously by the "Axis of Resistance" and by Israel's American allies.
With all this in mind, Haniyeh's assassination in the capital of the Islamic Republic thus seems to serve less of a strategic objective than to send a message to Iran and the "Axis of Resistance" as a whole.
What about peace talks for a truce in Gaza?
Ismail Haniyeh, based mostly in Qatar, certainly had a significant influence within the Palestinian movement, representing it to mediators during negotiations for a possible cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages still held in besieged enclave.
Listed as a terrorist by Israel, the United States, and many European countries, Haniyeh is the highest-ranking member of Hamas to have been eliminated during this war.
Hamas Political leader Isamil Haniyeh greeting supporters during a visit to Ain al-Helweh, Lebanon's largest Palestinian refugee camp, near Saida, in September 2020. (Credit: AFP)
However, since Oct. 7, the one making decisions and having the final say in the group's operations is reportedly in Gaza's tunnels. No condition can be set, no agreement can be signed without the approval of Yahya Sinwar, head of the movement's military wing in the Strip.
Former spokesperson for Hamas Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh represented "a serious escalation, which will not achieve its objectives."
Does this mean that the talks for a truce will continue despite everything? As of now, the fate of the negotiations remains unknown, as do Hamas' possible reactions to the assassination. The group could launch a barrage of rockets on several Israeli towns in retaliation. Strategically, Hamas has nevertheless shown a desire for a cease-fire for several weeks now, while Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip have not let up.
After making concessions in early July, Hamas continued discussions despite new demands imposed by the Israelis over the course of the talks, even recently accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of "procrastination."
The political leader of Hamas, Ismaïl Haniyeh, meeting with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on July 30, 2024, just before being killed by a strike attributed on Israel. (Credit: Khamenei.ir/AFP)
Iran directly affected
However, the strike reached the heart of the Islamic Republic. It is not the first time Tel Aviv has been behind targeted assassinations in the Iranian capital. In 2022, a senior officer of the Revolutionary Guards Corps was killed in his car in Tehran, and before him Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a scientist of the Iranian nuclear program, two years earlier.
But this recent incident comes after a tense exchange of reprisals in April, amid the Gaza war, raising — yet again — fears of regional escalation. In response to a strike on its embassy in Damascus that killed a senior Revolutionary Guards official, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Tehran launched over three hundred projectiles toward Israel on April 13, most of which were intercepted, before enduring the firing of several missiles targeting the surroundings of Isfahan, not far from a nuclear plant.
Seeking to show force, the Islamic Republic promised to respond strongly to any future aggression against its territory and interests, even suggesting a potential change in its nuclear doctrine to officially authorize the use of nuclear power in the military field. However, that trajectory was mitigated thanks to diplomatic efforts to calibrate responses in such a way as to avoid the outbreak of direct confrontation between the two adversaries.
This was possible because Iran does not want a regional war that could weaken its network of affiliates and destabilize its regime, and neither do the United States. But although Washington appears to be keeping that line, still seeking to avoid a full-scale war, it seems to have also somewhat revised its calculations given Israel's stubbornness in restoring its regional deterrent capability.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Ismail Haniyeh during their attendenace of Algeria's 60th anniversary of independence, in July 2022. (Credit AFP)
Israel reportedly informed the Americans of their retaliatory strike in advance and in the wake of the Israeli attack, a pro-Iranian militia base in Iraq was targeted by American forces. The sequence of strikes could indicate a coordinated effort by the two allies to send a strong signal to the "Axis of Resistance" as a whole: no one will be safe anywhere.
Did Benjamin Netanyahu's speech at U.S. Congress on July 24, where he depicted the Iranian threat as existential also for the United States, finally resonate with an ally tired of his conduct of the war?
Israel's 'plausible deniability'
The question now is what the response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh will be. Iran convened the Supreme National Security Council for an emergency meeting on Wednesday morning, with the participation of General Hossein Salami, commander of al-Quds forces, the paramilitary arm of the Revolutionary Guards in charge of relations with Tehran's allies.
A few hours after Haniyeh's death, Iran's Supreme Leader promised "severe punishment" against Israel. Its newly inaugurated president, Massoud Pezeshkian, declared that Iran "will defend its territorial integrity, honor, pride and dignity, and make the terrorist invaders regret their cowardly act."
Given the temporal proximity to the strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, the Islamic Republic could let Hezbollah respond to both incidents at once. Especially since it wasn't an Iranian official who was targeted. In case the hypothesis of an Israeli missile is confirmed by Iranian authorities, it will however be more difficult for Tehran not to respond directly.
Still, a precedent was set in January, when Hamas' deputed political leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in the southern suburbs of Beirut and Hezbollah's response did not exceed the rules of engagement with Israel.
Israel claimed responsibility for the assassination of Fouad Shukur, also known as "Hajj Mohsen," but it has refused to give any comment on the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran. This concept of "plausible deniability," so dear to Iran... will its use by Israel make it possible to avoid an all-out war?
