Residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut gathered on Tuesday evening after the Israeli strike that targeted a high-ranking official of Hezbollah, Fouad Shukur. (Credit: Mohammad Yassine/L'Orient Today)
BEIRUT — On Tuesday, Israel struck the heart of Beirut's southern suburbs, targeting Fouad Shukur, a longtime member of Hezbollah. Shukur was responsible for the majority of "Hezbollah's most advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles" according to the Israeli army. His body was found under the rubble on Wednesday afternoon.
Tuesday's airstrike, which killed six people and injured at least 80, was in response to the killing of 12 children in the village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-occupied Syrian Golan Heights. Israel attributed this strike to Hezbollah, which the latter strongly denied.
Hezbollah's precision missiles, which pose a significant threat to Israel, have long been a topic of discussion as the party has been working continuously on this project over the last few years. While this threat was not as big in the Hezbollah-Israel 2006 war, Israel worries that in the next war, Hezbollah could use these missiles to target its infrastructure, including ports and power stations.
In 2022, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said for the first time that the group has the ability to convert thousands of rockets into precision missiles, in Lebanon, with the cooperation of "experts from the Islamic Republic of Iran."
On Monday, a Hezbollah source told the Associated Press that the "organization is transporting precision missiles in preparation for confrontation with Israel."
What are precision missiles?
While traditional missiles have a margin of error as high as 50 meters, according to retired Lebanese Army General Mohamad Atwi, precision missiles have a tiny margin of error of only about one meter.
Atwi told L'Orient Today that the missiles operate on guidance systems such as an electro-optical system, laser or GPS.
The electro-optical system involves a missile equipped with an optical camera, meaning that when the missile is fired, it can be monitored through a camera.
Meanwhile, the GPS determines targets based on coordinates, Atwi added. The coordinates allow the GPS to guide the missile directly towards a target.
"The most precise missiles are the ones that have more than one guidance system," he explained, "like for example, those that contain an optical camera, a laser and a GPS."
Fateh-1 ballistic and al-Nour cruise missiles
Since the beginning of the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel at the Lebanese-Israeli border on Oct. 8, one day after the start of the war on Gaza, Hezbollah has only used one type of precision missile, the anti-tank short-range guided ones, according to military expert Riyad Kahwaji.
He told L'Orient Today that Hezbollah has used anti-tank guided missiles in the past months to target vehicles and installations, adding that these missiles are "tactical weapons [suitable] for front-line operations."
However, other precision weapons have not been used yet; mainly the "Fateh-1 ballistic missiles, which are equipped with a GPS guidance system, and the al-Nour anti-ship cruise missiles."
Kahwaji said that Hezbollah did not have ballistic missiles in the 2006 war and that it is not known in which year the party acquired them.
Military expert and former war journalist Elijah Magnier said that precision missiles could cause devastating consequences as the smallest precision missile that Hezbollah has weighs 250 to 2,000 kg and the party has "thousands" of them.
According to Magnier, these long-range missiles might be used to hit electricity infrastructure, energy platforms, harbors or airports in the event of an all-out war.
Asked about the impact of the potential assassination of Shukur on the precision missiles project, he said: "Shukur was the commander. He will eventually be replaced by somebody else."
Magnier echoed this position, saying that "Shukur can be easily replaced."
"In the Jihad Council [the highest military body of Hezbollah which is responsible for major strategic decisions] there are several people with similar experience and history as Shukur so he can be easily replaced," Magnier said.
Will these missiles enter the conflict, following the Beirut strike?
Magnieh said that Hezbollah would need to target a "substantial military non-civilian target in its retaliation because the objective of the Israeli strike was a military person. "
If Hezbollah decides to use medium or long-range precision missiles in its retaliation, it would be to deter Israel and not to trigger a wider war, he added.
According to Atwi, the latest "Israeli strike on Beirut, in addition to the genocide in Gaza, legitimizes the use of all Hezbollah's tools to deter Israel from destroying buildings and killing civilians."
Meanwhile, Shaan Shaikh, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that "Hezbollah wants to de-escalate the situation and that the party will not respond in a significant military operation although this is still to be determined."
Shaikh does not believe that Hezbollah will use precision long-range missiles at this point, instead arguing that the party will save them in the case of a larger Israeli strike.
