The leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil. (Credit: Facebook/Tayyar.org)
BEIRUT — The leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Gebran Bassil, said in a televised interview on Wednesday evening that he "fears" a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but that he believes that Israel will not take this initiative "because it is too powerless to do so."
"I fear that Israel will start a total war against Lebanon, but I don't expect it because it is too powerless to do so," Bassil told Sky News Arabia. "They couldn't defeat Hamas on 340 square kilometers, they won't be able to defeat Lebanon on 10,452 square kilometers," he said, noting Hezbollah's "far superior strength" compared to Hamas. He said that such a total war, if it were to break out, would likely drag on and that Lebanon "alone cannot wage this war, without the involvement of the Arabs or at least Syria."
Lebanon linked to 'a decision by Sinwar'
Reiterating his criticism, addressed without mentioning Hezbollah, regarding the opening of a front against Israel after the start of the offensive in Gaza, he asked, "Is it conceivable that Lebanon would bind itself to a decision that was taken only by Sinwar," the head of Hamas in Gaza, who is believed to be the mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
Regarding the negotiations, led in particular by the American envoy Amos Hochstein, to resolve the conflict in southern Lebanon, Bassil stressed that while it is not necessary to "return to the previous rules of engagement, Lebanese demands must still be taken into account".
Hochstein met Wednesday in Paris with the French presidential envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian. According to the White House, quoted by Reuters, the two men discussed "American and French efforts to restore calm in the Middle East." Paris and Washington "share the common objective of resolving the conflict on both sides of the Blue Line, through diplomatic means, in order to allow Israeli and Lebanese civilians to return home with long-term security guarantees", according to an American official. This objective is to try to put in place a common road map with Washington, Paris relying on its experience with resolution 1701, which ended the July 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, and the April 1996 agreement, which aimed to stabilize the border in the aftermath of the Israeli operation "Grapes of Wrath."
The FPM leader added that his party had "demanded an international resolution from the Security Council for a cease-fire but without an international response."
Russian aid to the army and Washington's anger
Regarding the alliance between the FPM and Hezbollah, Bassil spoke of "a great disagreement on the concept of the state."
"Hezbollah and its allies consider that the resistance has priority while we consider that the project of the state is the priority," he elaborated, acknowledging however that the resistance "is not in contradiction with the state," especially since the Lebanese army is "prevented from arming itself" as it would need to resist Israel, according to him. The main backer of the troops is Washington, Tel Aviv's number one ally, and Lebanon has not been able to "offer Russian aid to the army, for fear of angering the United States," Bassil added.
"Of course, we are in favor of the army controlling the borders and defending Lebanon, and that there must be a defense strategy involving the state and the army in a fundamental way," he said, stressing nevertheless that it is still necessary to "take advantage of the element of strength" that is the "resistance."
Jihad Azour remains the candidate supported by the FPM
Returning further to the presidential vacancy, Bassil stressed that until now, the FPM's candidate remains former minister Jihad Azour, on whose name he had agreed, in particular with the Lebanese Forces, a party opposed to the FPM. He criticized Hezbollah for having asked the Christian parties to "agree" before being able to "follow" them, but for not having accepted the personality on which the main Christian parties had agreed. "We must reach an agreement on the next president," but if this preliminary agreement is not found, it will be necessary to "refer to the Constitution and move to a vote."
Hezbollah and its main ally, the Amal Movement, led by PArliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, advocate that the election be based on a consensus. Pending such an agreement, Berri refuses to convene Parliament for an electoral session. The Lebanese Forces regularly criticize this position of the speaker.
This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.
