
The former leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt. (Credit: Nabil Ismail/L'Orient-Le Jour)
Walid Jumblatt, former Progressive Socialist Party leader, predicted an escalation of the conflict in South Lebanon on Sunday, stressing the urgent need for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
In a televised interview during his visit to Jordan, where he met King Abdullah II, Jumblatt stated, "The war is expanding, the rules of engagement have changed and the shelling is affecting almost all Lebanese regions." The "rules of engagement" refer to a tacit agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, which since 2006 limited Hezbollah's cross-border strikes to the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms. However, cross-border strikes since Oct. 8 have altered this longstanding pattern, maintaining some "proportionality," noted David Wood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Lebanon, to L'Orient Today.
Since conflict began, Israel struck positions as far as the Beirut southern suburbs, where it assassinated a Hamas official in early January, and now regularly bombs the Bekaa and Baalbeck areas. In retaliation, Hezbollah is targeting positions deep within Israeli territory — often reaching dozens of kilometers inland.
Jumblatt also addressed Hezbollah's stance, suggesting that their logic of ceasing fire in southern Lebanon if the conflict in Gaza ends should be tested. "If Hezbollah says they will stop the war in southern Lebanon if the war in Gaza ends, then let's see," he stated.
'No serious American effort'
Jumblatt expressed uncertainty about whether the outgoing American administration could contain this aggression, potentially leading to a major regional war. "With Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Congress, I don't know if the current American administration can curb this aggression," he added.
Criticizing the American stance, particularly during an election period, Jumblatt said, "Both Trump and Joe Biden are vying for the support of AIPAC," The American Israel Public Affairs Committee — a zionist lobbying group that advocates pro-Israel policies. "During nine months of war in Gaza, we have not seen any serious American effort except attempts to mitigate the conflict, which have achieved nothing."
On May 31, Joe Biden presented a cease-fire deal, which was later green-lit by Security Council members last week, proposing an initial six-week pause in fighting, but to no avail so far.
'Reach a compromise' on presidential crisis
Regarding Lebanon's presidential file, Jumblatt emphasized the importance of reaching a compromise. "No internal faction in Lebanon can impose a president unilaterally. The president must be the result of an internal consensus," he explained. He noted discussing the matter with King Abdullah, who understands the need for a consensus-driven approach.
Jumblatt pointed out that dialogue is crucial for a resolution. Parliament Speak Nabih Berri has stated he won't hold any new electoral session unless political factions agree to participate in a dialogue beforehand. However, the opposition rejects Berri's condition, calling it unconstitutional and advocating for a democratic electoral competition between candidates. "Some Lebanese factions, as I was informed, reject this dialogue, leading to a deadlock. We are going in circles," he concluded. Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun left office in Oct. 2022.