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Escalation: Iran’s watchword to the ‘Axis of Resistance’

Hezbollah said it has surprises in store for the Israelis. Could it be ground-to-air missiles that can bring down their fighter jets?

Escalation: Iran’s watchword to the ‘Axis of Resistance’

Israeli soldiers inspecting damage in Dovev, northern Israel, after a Hezbollah attack, May 27, 2024. (Credit: Jalaa Marey/AFP)

At a meeting in Tehran last week, the “Axis of Resistance” leaders discussed military and political developments in Gaza and the region, particularly following the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash near Tabriz.

Sources close to the axis said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander stressed the strength and resilience of Iran and its regime. He underscored that the crash will not affect the country’s domestic political situation.

The Iranians spoke of “a campaign” targeting their country “by fabricating a so-called battle” over the succession of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, the same sources said.

Many observers believe that, following Raisi’s death, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the current supreme leader, has become the only serious contender for the post.

However, Iranian officials denied this version of events, claiming that Ali Khamenei does not wish to hand over his post to his son.

“That would be contrary to religious teachings, and the supreme leader knows it,” said a source close to the axis.

“Moreover, the 1979 Iranian Revolution against the Shah aimed to combat the hereditary transfer of power,” the source added.

In this context, sources in Iran indicated that an idea is circulating in Tehran’s highest political circles about forming a committee that would take over the job of the supreme leader, rather than tying it to a single person. This committee would comprise several leading ayatollahs, including Mojtaba Khamenei.

Secondly, Tehran explained that the political position of the “Axis of Resistance” must be aligned with its military position. Consequently, and to demonstrate that the Islamic Republic maintains a strong stance both at home and abroad, a military escalation was decided upon.

At the end of the meeting, Iran called on the “parties to the Axis of Resistance to intensify their attacks until victory is achieved.” This included Hamas, the Houthis, Iraqi factions and, above all, Hezbollah. Thus, it was agreed that Hamas should diversify its military operations in Gaza and extend the geographical areas of its strikes. Immediately, the Palestinian movement struck the outskirts of Tel Aviv on Sunday for the first time in months.

“This is intended to show that it is still capable of moving militarily across the Palestinian enclave and that it is maintaining its military force’s cohesion,” said the source.

Finally, at this meeting, the Iranians informed the leaders of these groups of the developments in the negotiations with the US.

The sources added that after this meeting, and more specifically during a coordination meeting between Hezbollah and Hamas, the importance of military action and negotiations going hand in hand was stressed. It was agreed that Hamas should be firm in its negotiations with the Israelis. Making further concessions to Tel Aviv, including a humanitarian truce, was thus out of the question.

Hamas believes that it has no option other than a total confrontation or an end to the war. It argued that if it makes do with a truce and releases the hostages, Israeli military operations will sooner or later resume, but the movement would have lost its last and main card, the sources said.

Thus, after discussing the resumption of negotiations, Hamas informed all mediators that its position remained firm. Its demands include an end to the war and the withdrawal of the Israelis from the Gaza Strip, and it will only agree to release the hostages in a phased manner over a long period.

“Hamas is betting on internal and external pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government, particularly in the run-up to the US elections,” said a source close to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has no choice but to continue the increasingly violent war in support of Gaza. “Hezbollah is ready to continue the fight, irrespective of its duration,” said the source.

Although it considers that raising military pressure on Israel could sharpen internal tensions and force the Israeli government to accept serious negotiations for a settlement, Hezbollah is also preparing for the possibility that all talks fail due to Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing military operations for as long as possible.

“No one knows how long the war might last,” said the source close to Hezbollah.

The party said it has informed all actors concerned, both in Lebanon and abroad, that there will be no change in its position, even if the war goes on for months, with parties behind the scenes predicting that it will not end before the US elections (scheduled for November).

In this context, the source close to Hezbollah revealed that “the decision in Tehran is clear: Full support for all allies in the region and preparation for even more escalation should diplomacy fail.”

As a result, Hezbollah’s source said to watch out for the “surprises” that Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah promised Israel in his latest speech. According to the source, there will be surprises on two levels. The first is linked to the type of weapons used.

According to information obtained by L’Orient-Le Jour, the Shiite militia is preparing to use long-range, high-precision weapons, as well as ground-to-air missiles capable of shooting down Israeli fighter jets. It intends to test this type of missile made in Russia but modified by the Iranians.

If they manage to hit or shoot down an aircraft, it would be a big surprise for the Israelis, whose military strategy is based on air dominance, but also for the international community, which is already shocked by Hezbollah’s ability to shoot down Israeli Hermes 900 drones.

“There will also be operational surprises, which could take the form of ambushes against Israeli patrols, which would find themselves surrounded by fire, or even, if necessary, infiltration operations into Israeli sites, or even the capture of soldiers,” added the source.

“The implementation of these plans depends on the needs on the ground. Hezbollah is in no hurry,” the source said.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.

At a meeting in Tehran last week, the “Axis of Resistance” leaders discussed military and political developments in Gaza and the region, particularly following the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash near Tabriz.Sources close to the axis said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander stressed the strength and resilience of Iran and its regime. He...