Why Sleiman Frangieh is keeping a low profile

A rare consensus. For several weeks now, all the political parties in Lebanon have been in agreement on the need to find a solution to the thorny issue of Syrian migrants and refugees, even if there is no unanimity on the means to be implemented and, above all, on the party empowered to deal with it. And yet, despite this convergence, and at a time when Christians, in particular, are trying to make the issue a battlehorse, Sleiman Frangieh stands out for his discretion. The Marada leader and presidential candidate of the Amal-Hezbollah parliamentary bloc had made this one of the cardinal points of his campaign. Today, however, he finds himself in a position where it is better to keep a low profile.

During Wednesday's general parliamentary debate on the issue of migrants and refugees, none of the MPs from the Marada bloc asked to speak, leaving the stage to the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement. Similarly, the May 9 meeting organized by the Maronite Church in Bkirki on the same subject was boycotted by the caretaker information minister, Ziad Makari, one of Frangieh's loyalists, even though he was among the invited guests.

'Assad's soldier'

In the camp of Frangieh's detractors, it is claimed that he walks on eggshells to avoid offending his ally and childhood friend, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “Contrary to the image Frangieh wants to project, particularly to the West, the reality is that he remains a loyal soldier of the Syrian regime,” claimed an opposition MP. At a time when Lebanon is feeling the impact of the migration crisis, Assad is using this issue as a means of putting pressure on the international community to lift sanctions on Damascus. In fact, the Syrian government entered the debate on this issue in a letter sent to the Lebanese government at the beginning of the week. In this letter, Syrian Foreign Minister Faysal Mokdad called on his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib not to make any commitments to the international community on the issue of Syrian refugees and migrants without “coordinating” with Syria.

“You only have to look at how the Maradas are handling the Syrian issue in their municipalities to realize this,” added the aforementioned MP. The district of Zgharta is currently home to almost 40,000 Syrian nationals, according to a figure provided by the Marada. However, there are reports of a new influx from the Batroun district, since the municipalities there have taken strict measures to expel undocumented foreigners. The latter is said to have been redirected towards Zgharta, where most villages are under Marada control and where deportation measures are not as firm. “This laxity reflects Sleiman Frangieh's desire not to upset his ally Bashar,” said the MP. Marada denied this version of events and stressed that this issue constitutes “a burden for Lebanon that must be resolved.”

Waiting for the right moment

But this is not the only explanation behind Frangieh's discretion. “He's sulking,” claimed a Zgharta figure opposed to the Marada leader. The main reason for this is that the presidential candidate considers the other Christian parties – mainly the LF and FPM – are trying to step on his toes by presenting themselves as champions of the campaign to repatriate Syrians. “Competition with the major Christian parties is certainly one of the reasons behind Frangieh's silence. He doesn't want to put himself on an equal footing with them [since he considers himself to be the only serious presidential candidate],” explained Jimmy Moawad, a political scientist from Zgharta, who refers to the Zgharta leader's “pragmatism.” “Sleiman Frangieh is an old hand who knows the ins and outs of politics perfectly and has been doing so since the 90s. He knows that all this fuss will come to nothing, as the solution lies in the hands of Damascus, Hezbollah and the international community,” he said. According to this reading, Frangieh is content to stand back and observe, waiting for the right moment to break his silence.

But at a time when Parliament is recommending that the authorities resume contact with the Syrian government – following a change of direction by several political parties – has a card been taken out of the hands of the Baron of Bnashi? Marada claims the opposite. “Because of his personal relations in Syria, Sleiman Frangieh is in the best position to find a way out of this issue,” said Makari, ahead of the debate in Place de l'Étoile on Wednesday. A year earlier, Frangieh insisted on this point at a press conference in Zgharta. “This issue cannot be resolved by those who are hostile to the Syrian regime,” commented Frangieh's advisor, Tony Merheb, for L'Orient-Le Jour, alluding in particular to the LF and highlighting Frangieh's privileged relations with Assad but also “his good contacts with Arab countries and the West.”

This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.