Najib Mikati and his Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi at the Grand Serail. (Credit: Dalati and Nohra)
The worst was avoided. The caretaker government’s position condemning Hezbollah for launching three drones toward the Karish field angered the party, which accused Mikati of tailoring his position “to please the Americans.”
The dispute risked torpedoing efforts led by Hassan Nasrallah’s party to mediate between President Aoun and the prime minister-designate to form a cabinet. The quarrel would have weakened Mikati’s position, since the Amal-Hezbollah bloc is the only substantial parliamentary group to support his reappointment.
L’Orient-Le Jour learnt that Ali Hassan Khalil, an Amal MP and the right-hand man of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, worked to de-escalate the situation. Khalil intensified his shuttle diplomacy Wednesday night, and apparently he succeeded.
“Karish is now behind us,” a well-informed source told L’Orient-Le Jour.
“Hezbollah is surely disappointed with Mikati’s position, but this will not affect cabinet formation, because the party remains committed to the formation of the next ministerial team as soon as possible,” said Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah.
As only two months separate Lebanese from the presidential election, the cabinet could play a central role in the event of a presidential vacuum, when the president’s prerogatives would constitutionally fall to the cabinet.
The same is true of the main parties concerned, both those close to the Serail and the Aounists, who said that the drones issue is “completely dissociated” from the formation of Mikati’s fourth cabinet.
“Hezbollah has told us that it is not engaged in a policy of blocking and does not intend to put obstacles in Najib Mikati’s way,” said Rindala Jabbour, spokesperson for the Free Patriotic Movement.
“No one has an interest in delaying the formation of the cabinet,” added a politician aligned with the prime minister-designate.
What’s blocking cabinet formation?
This does not mean that the formation of the next cabinet is imminent. In fact, the main points of contention remain the same. First, the FPM and Mikati have yet to agree on the nature of the cabinet.
“We are convinced that the next cabinet must have political support,” said Jabbour.
Following the May elections, Gebran Bassil said “bye-bye to the cabinet of technocrats,” thus reaffirming his commitment to the formation of political cabinets, three years after the popular protests that commenced Oct. 17 and pushed for the formation of a technocratic government.
“We suggest that the next cabinet include six ministers of state without portfolio representing the six main parties,” said the FPM spokeswoman, taking up one of the three solutions that Aoun proposed to Mikati.
The second option is to change a few names in the caretaker government, taking into account partisan balances as Mikati’s first proposed lineup has not.
The third option acceptable to Baabda is the return of the current team, in which the Aounist camp (the FPM and president) holds six portfolios.
If the option of expanding the cabinet were taken into account, the cabinet would then consist of 30 ministers (compared with 24 in present one) and “all parties wishing to participate would be welcome,” said Jabbour.
In the lineup Mikati presented, which had strongly displeased the president’s camp, the prime minister-designate suggested 24 ministers, most technocrats, with the exception of former MP Amal Yassin Jaber for the Ministry of Finance, Georges Bouchikian, Armenian MP from Zahle for the Tashnag, for the Ministry of Economy, and Akkar MP Sagih Attieh, who is close to the former pro-Hariri camp, for the Ministry of the Displaced.
“The prime minister is satisfied with the nature of the cabinet he presented,” said a politician close to Mikati.
Mikati and Aoun will not meet this week
Besides the nature of the cabinet, the allocation of portfolios is also a source of disagreement. In his first proposed lineup, the Tripoli billionaire chose to replace caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayad (Greek Orthodox), who is close to the FPM, with Walid Sinno, a Sunni businessman, much to the dismay of Aounists.
“The FPM is demanding to be allocated the Ministry of the Interior in exchange for the Ministry of Energy,” a source closely following up on the negotiations told L’Orient-Le Jour. This condition is difficult for Mikati to accept.
Based on political practice in Lebanon in recent years, the five sovereign portfolios have been distributed as follows: Finance to a Shiite, Interior to a Sunni, Defense to a Greek Orthodox and Foreign Affairs and Justice to Maronites.
By assigning the Interior Ministry to the Christian party, Mikati will provoke the anger of Sunni public opinion (his own community), a significant part of which already feels aggrieved since Future Movement leader Saad Hariri withdrew from politics.
Caretaker Minister of the Interior, Bassam Mawlawi, is very close to the prime minister-designate, who insists on reappointing him [to the same post].
For its part, the FPM denies having claimed any portfolio. “We have not yet discussed the political distribution of ministries because we oppose the nature of the team to come,” said Jabbour, adding that, “the ball is in Najib Mikati’s court. He can go to Baabda for discussions.”
In Mikati’s circles, it is said that he intends to go to the presidential palace “after Eid al-Adha,” without giving more details. Postponing his visit, which was initially planned for this week, is a sign that there is no light on the horizon…
This story was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour, translated by Joelle Khoury.