US Democratic Senate candidate from Michigan Abdul El-Sayed addresses supporters at his election night event at The Majestic Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, on Aug. 4, 2026. (Credit: Jeff Kowalsky/AFP)
NBC News has projected that progressive Abdul El-Sayed has won the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, defeating U.S. Representative Haley Stevens, and will face Republican Mike Rogers in the November midterm elections.
No other major network has made a projection in the race.
What had been billed as a defining test of the Democratic Party's direction turned into an election-night cliffhanger, with progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed clinging to a narrowing lead over U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan's U.S. Senate primary throughout the night.
But the margin tightened as votes were being counted in Detroit, Flint, and other heavily Black communities where Stevens performed strongly. With nearly eight years in Congress, Stevens had the backing of the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus and the Congressional Black Caucus' political action committee.
With 90% of the estimated vote counted, CNN showed El-Sayed leading Stevens by 49% to 47%.
Tuesday's contest had emerged as one of the clearest tests yet of the direction of the Democratic Party, pitting El-Sayed's campaign against Stevens, an establishment-backed moderate supported by Democratic leaders and pro-Israel groups.
Two candidates vow to unite against Republicans
The two candidates took the stage of their separate election-night events close to 1 a.m. ET (5 a.m. GMT) on Wednesday, each acknowledging that the final results might not emerge for hours and focusing their remarks on defeating Mike Rogers, the Republican rival one of them would face in November's midterm elections.
The race was being closely watched for clues about whether Democratic voters in a crucial swing state are receptive to candidates who challenge party leaders and champion an agenda focused on lowering costs, expanding healthcare coverage and restricting the role of big money in elections.
The Michigan race is critical to Democrats' hopes of regaining control of the U.S. Senate. Rogers, a former U.S. Representative, narrowly lost his previous Senate run to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024.
An upbeat Stevens told supporters she was feeling good and fired up, adding: "If we are going to win this thing, which we are, we are going to have to get ready and show Mike Rogers what a little stick-it-to-him looks like."
In his speech, El-Sayed asked supporters to "send a blow to Trumpism" by defeating Rogers.
"Tomorrow we begin to mend fences," he said. "Whatever happens tonight, we have a responsibility, for sure, that we unite to make sure that Mike Rogers never sees the inside of the U.S. Senate."
A battle between progressives and moderates
The Democratic race is the latest battleground between progressives and moderates over U.S. support for Israel, an issue that has played out in primaries nationwide this year. But unlike contests in liberal bastions, this is a statewide race in a Midwestern swing state for a seat Democrats must win in the fight for Senate control.
Michigan is both a presidential battleground and home to one of the country's largest Arab American communities, making it an important testing ground for Democrats' electoral and ideological future.
Israel's favorability rating among Democrats fell from 59% in 2018 to 22% in May, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. But the primary is also a test of broader voter frustrations over economic concerns and the party establishment.
An expected 2028 impact
The race is likely to be scrutinized by prospective 2028 presidential contenders searching for a message to reconnect with voters after the party's 2024 defeat. A victory for El-Sayed could intensify debate within Democratic ranks over the political appeal of economic populism, anti-establishment campaigning, and a tougher approach toward Israel.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday found self-described liberals now make up 71% of Democrats, up from 55% in 2012, while large majorities said universal healthcare, expanded abortion access, and higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy are essential policy positions.
The poll also found deep Democratic skepticism of U.S. support for Israel, a central issue in the Michigan race. Only 16% of Democrats backed continued military and economic aid to Israel, while 57% opposed it.
Ballots cast in Michigan and four other states
Voters in Michigan, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, and Washington state decided on U.S. House candidates in Democratic primaries on Tuesday, including a handful that could determine whether the party retakes the lower chamber. Four of those races are considered general election toss-ups.
Democratic U.S. Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington and state Senate Republican Leader John Braun advanced to the general election in the state's top-two primary. The progressive candidate, Brent Hennrich, finished a distant third.
In two Virginia districts expected to be competitive in November, Democrats nominated former U.S. Representative Elaine Luria and Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor.
And in Missouri, progressive Democrat Cori Bush failed in her bid to unseat U.S. Representative Wesley Bell in a rematch of 2024. A pro-Israel super PAC spent more than $8 million to help unseat Bush, a vocal critic of Israel, last cycle and more than $3 million this cycle to keep Bush out of Congress. Bell is heavily favored to win in November, as the St. Louis-area district is safely Democratic.
