While it is still too early to assess the impact on Lebanon of the memorandum of understanding being prepared between the United States and Iran, the general impression on Hezbollah's side is that it represents a breakthrough in its favor.
In fact, Hezbollah had already been encouraged by this positive atmosphere as early as Friday, based on information it had received from Iran. But it was careful not to speak publicly about it, first because experience has shown it is prudent not to place too much trust in the American president, and second because the situation in Lebanon remains complicated, particularly given the Israeli prime minister's clear insistence on continuing the war.
For Hezbollah, in any case, if this process aimed at reaching a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the United States becomes clearer and produces concrete results, it would mean that Iran has won this round by obtaining significant concessions from the American administration.
On the issue of frozen Iranian assets alone, there is already discussion of an initial unfreezing of $25 billion. Regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is clear that Iran would now have a say and could no longer be ignored. A solution to the enriched uranium issue is also reportedly under discussion.
Finally — and this is the point most relevant to Lebanon and Israel — Iran is demanding a cease-fire on all fronts, including Lebanon. If confirmed, this would mean that the various issues could not be separated and that Iran had not lost its Lebanese card. Those who had been betting on the end of Iran's influence in Lebanon, through diminishing Hezbollah's role, would therefore have been mistaken and would now have to contend with this reality.
In this context, questions arise over the future of the direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel under U.S. sponsorship, scheduled for May 29 and June 2 and 3. According to sources close to decision-making circles, this process is not being called into question. It should continue, but the broader atmosphere could shift because if a genuine agreement between Iran and the United States is reached within the next 60 days, it would necessarily entail de-escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese front.
This would imply a different approach. The focus would no longer be on weakening Hezbollah's military capabilities but on integrating the group, even if that does not suit the Israelis. According to sources close to Iran, the U.S. reportedly told Pakistani mediators they would be willing to pressure Israel to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days in exchange for a total and verified Hezbollah withdrawal from the area.
There would then need to be agreement on a new "mechanism" to monitor compliance with the accord by both sides because, under such circumstances, Hezbollah is not prepared to accept one-sided implementation while Israel continues carrying out strikes in Lebanon whenever it perceives a threat. This is, incidentally, the most difficult issue to resolve, since the U.S. had until now agreed to grant this advantage to Israel.
But within the framework of a U.S.-Iranian agreement, this issue could be revisited to ensure a more balanced arrangement between the two sides. Negotiations could therefore become less difficult thanks to a U.S.-Iran deal, but they would remain highly complicated.
What could change, however, is that the U.S. — which until now has been more clearly aligned with Israeli demands — could become more receptive to Lebanese requests and the country's internal circumstances. Moreover, the unease that has emerged in Israel following reports of a possible U.S.-Iran agreement suggests this could work in Lebanon's favor.
Lebanon could therefore have more leverage at the negotiating table, whereas it initially entered the process from a very difficult position. However, sources close to decision-making circles stress the need for caution, as nothing has yet been finalized and, above all, Hezbollah should not begin claiming victory.
The time has not yet come for conclusions. Everything still remains to be built, and Lebanon is not out of the woods. But if a U.S.-Iran agreement is confirmed, Lebanon could benefit from a more favorable environment for addressing its situation, not only through U.S. support but also within the framework of cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as suggested several days ago by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
In the meantime, Lebanon hopes to approach the security negotiations scheduled for May 29 at the Pentagon in a less tense atmosphere.
Aoun hails agreement between Washington and Tehran after call from Iran FM