Lebanese President Joseph Aoun greets his Syrian counterpart Ahmad al-Sharaa on the sidelines of a summit of European Union leaders and their regional partners, in Nicosia, on April 24, 2026. (Credit: SANA)
Lebanon risks becoming the region’s weakest link — a marginalized arena, caught in the crosscurrents of competing projects and deadlock.The region now faces the threat of a new escalation. And even if the situation were to remain at a standstill — between blockade and inconclusive skirmishes — U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to secure an “achievement” or a “victory.”That outcome could play out in Lebanon: either by pushing it toward normalization and peace on Israeli terms, or by reopening the path to a devastating Israeli war with U.S. backing — with the risk of expanding the conflict to other fronts, particularly Syria.In such a scenario, new attempts could be made to draw Damascus into a confrontation with Hezbollah, plunging the region into a Sunni-Shiite war and dragging Lebanon...
Lebanon risks becoming the region’s weakest link — a marginalized arena, caught in the crosscurrents of competing projects and deadlock.The region now faces the threat of a new escalation. And even if the situation were to remain at a standstill — between blockade and inconclusive skirmishes — U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to secure an “achievement” or a “victory.”That outcome could play out in Lebanon: either by pushing it toward normalization and peace on Israeli terms, or by reopening the path to a devastating Israeli war with U.S. backing — with the risk of expanding the conflict to other fronts, particularly Syria.In such a scenario, new attempts could be made to draw Damascus into a confrontation with Hezbollah, plunging the region into a Sunni-Shiite war and...
