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ANALYSIS

Trump tightens the noose as Iran holds out: Is the naval blockade working?

The central question is not whether the regime can withstand the blockade, but how long each side can bear the costs of this strategy.

Trump tightens the noose as Iran holds out: Is the naval blockade working?

A commercial vessel is seen off the coast of Dubai on April 20, 2026. Oil prices jumped sharply on April 20 over fears hostilities could resume in the weeks-long war, after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend following its brief reopening on Friday in recognition of a ceasefire in Lebanon. (Credit: AFP)

Since launching the war against the Iranian regime on Feb. 28, Donald Trump has gradually shifted his strategy. After initially considering a military campaign to directly weaken Iran’s capabilities — and even push for regime change — Washington now appears to favor economic warfare to avoid becoming bogged down in a costly war of attrition. The use of a naval blockade fits within this approach. But can it truly force Tehran to yield?A maritime blockade is, in itself, an act of war. Unlike sanctions, it relies on physical coercion to halt the flow of goods. Early on, Iran responded by weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, restricting access to U.S. vessels and disrupting navigation to demonstrate its ability to affect a vital artery of global trade. This dynamic appears to have dissuaded Trump from pursuing regime-change rhetoric. In this...
Since launching the war against the Iranian regime on Feb. 28, Donald Trump has gradually shifted his strategy. After initially considering a military campaign to directly weaken Iran’s capabilities — and even push for regime change — Washington now appears to favor economic warfare to avoid becoming bogged down in a costly war of attrition. The use of a naval blockade fits within this approach. But can it truly force Tehran to yield?A maritime blockade is, in itself, an act of war. Unlike sanctions, it relies on physical coercion to halt the flow of goods. Early on, Iran responded by weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, restricting access to U.S. vessels and disrupting navigation to demonstrate its ability to affect a vital artery of global trade. This dynamic appears to have dissuaded Trump from pursuing regime-change rhetoric. In...
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