Can the Gulf model survive the Iran war?

The worst-case scenario long feared by Gulf countries has become reality in recent weeks. The Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints — has turned into both a direct threat and a key lever in the Iran–U.S. confrontation.According to data from “Horizon Insights,” Iran launched more than 4,000 attacks between Feb. 28 and March 19 against countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), primarily using drones and missiles. The United Arab Emirates was the hardest hit, while Kuwait recorded the highest number of casualties. Although U.S. air defense systems helped limit the damage, the attacks exposed the very core of the Gulf’s economic model by targeting critical infrastructure. The shock has been both strategic and economic, with slower exports, logistical disruptions, market volatility, and growing...