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Why the 1979 revolution hasn’t happened again in Iran (yet)

Although some factors present during the latest protest movement in Iran mirror those from the past, several necessary conditions are still lacking for a successful regime overthrow.

Why the 1979 revolution hasn’t happened again in Iran (yet)

Iranian women walk past an anti-U.S. billboard installed on a building at the Enqelab Square in Tehran on Jan. 26, 2026. (Credit: Atta Kenare/AFP)

This is the most existential threat the Islamic Republic has ever faced — a situation reminiscent of the revolution that brought it to power against the shah’s regime.But, unlike the 1978-1979 period, the massive protests that broke out in Iran in early January quickly lost momentum. The main reason: a brutal crackdown that left at least 6,100 dead in just a few days, according to the confirmed count so far by the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).Confronted with this iron-fisted response, Iranians deserted the streets, still mourning their dead while searching for alternative ways to reconnect with the outside world amid the blackout imposed by the regime. Was this a failed revolutionary moment? What was missing compared to 1979? Could the movement ultimately succeed? For memory Political arrests in Iran reflect fears of...
This is the most existential threat the Islamic Republic has ever faced — a situation reminiscent of the revolution that brought it to power against the shah’s regime.But, unlike the 1978-1979 period, the massive protests that broke out in Iran in early January quickly lost momentum. The main reason: a brutal crackdown that left at least 6,100 dead in just a few days, according to the confirmed count so far by the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).Confronted with this iron-fisted response, Iranians deserted the streets, still mourning their dead while searching for alternative ways to reconnect with the outside world amid the blackout imposed by the regime. Was this a failed revolutionary moment? What was missing compared to 1979? Could the movement ultimately succeed? For memory Political arrests in Iran reflect fears...
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