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Venezuelan oil: A geopolitical weapon against the Gulf?

Donald Trump’s control of the black gold of Venezuela, which sits on the world’s largest proven reserves, is fueling long-term fears among oil monarchies.

Venezuelan oil: A geopolitical weapon against the Gulf?

View of the El Palito oil refinery in Puerto Cabello, Carabobo State, Venezuela, on Jan. 11, 2026. (Credit: Maryorin Mendez/AFP)

Oil is one of Saudi Arabia’s main levers of influence over Washington. For decades, the kingdom has relied on oil to influence its relationship with the United States. Although its oil exports to the U.S. market have gradually declined over time, Riyadh, the world’s leading exporter of crude oil and a pillar of OPEC+, remains a key player in the oil market, regulating production and, by extension, global economic stability via the price per barrel. This is a card that Saudi Crown Prince and de facto leader Mohammad bin Salman holds in his relationship with Donald Trump, making concessions to secure valuable ones in return. Some further analysis What the US show of force in Venezuela means for the Middle East On several occasions in recent months, the kingdom has responded to requests from the White House by increasing production...
Oil is one of Saudi Arabia’s main levers of influence over Washington. For decades, the kingdom has relied on oil to influence its relationship with the United States. Although its oil exports to the U.S. market have gradually declined over time, Riyadh, the world’s leading exporter of crude oil and a pillar of OPEC+, remains a key player in the oil market, regulating production and, by extension, global economic stability via the price per barrel. This is a card that Saudi Crown Prince and de facto leader Mohammad bin Salman holds in his relationship with Donald Trump, making concessions to secure valuable ones in return. Some further analysis What the US show of force in Venezuela means for the Middle East On several occasions in recent months, the kingdom has responded to requests from the White House by increasing...
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