Postponing parliamentary elections: Is there consensus among domestic and international actors?

Officially, parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held on time next May. Yet doubts persist among the public, political parties and even diplomatic circles. On closer examination, it appears that most of the relevant actors, both in Lebanon and abroad, actually prefer a postponement, given the prevailing uncertainty in the regional and international landscape.

On the ground, however, preparations are proceeding. Voter registrations are rising, and electoral lists are being carefully reviewed as each side studies potential alliances to best serve its interests. But according to an Arab diplomatic source in Beirut, few actors truly wish to see the elections take place as scheduled. Domestically, major political forces would like a new Parliament that reflects evolving power dynamics, in Lebanon as well as in the broader region. Those dynamics, however, remain fluid and unresolved. How can elections be held when some key players may not even exist by next May, or could be significantly weakened? This concern does not only apply to Hezbollah; it also affects most Lebanese factions that rely to varying degrees on external support.

According to the same diplomatic source, the situation is simply too opaque to allow for informed political calculation. No one can predict what the regional or international balance of power will look like in the coming months, particularly with Israel’s legislative elections and the U.S. midterms set to take place in roughly eleven months. Because Lebanon’s trajectory is closely tied to these broader developments, both internal and external actors would prefer to wait a year or two before moving forward with parliamentary elections.

The source cites the Future Movement as an illustrative case. For more than eight years, it has struggled to maintain relevance, participating in elections largely as a reservoir of votes, without securing deputies or even a parliamentary bloc in its own name, due to the absence of Saudi support. A similar fate could befall the Lebanese Forces, who, despite strong popularity among Christians and substantial regional and international backing, could see their influence decline if that support weakens amid shifting political dynamics. Who would then ally with them? The most significant change, however, could concern Hezbollah. Although it retains a solid popular base, ongoing pressure and attempts to isolate it could have major consequences.

The core issue, in fact, is the risk of a new war between Iran and Israel, one that may involve U.S. backing and could profoundly reshape the regional order or even threaten the stability of the Iranian regime. According to Israeli media and certain foreign diplomatic circles, such a confrontation remains a real possibility. Israel is reportedly pushing for it, seeking to persuade Washington of the need to “finish the job” of weakening Iran and dismantling its regional networks. If such a war were to erupt, it would likely begin with strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and possibly pro-Iranian factions in Iraq. How would Hezbollah respond? During the 12-day Iran–Israel conflict in June 2025, it remained on the sidelines, but could it do so again? In light of these uncertainties, holding parliamentary elections now appears improbable. How can Lebanon elect a Parliament tasked with making critical decisions, yet unable to adapt to a rapidly shifting regional order?

For these reasons, the Arab diplomatic source describes the current timing as “inopportune.” In Lebanon and abroad, few genuinely support going ahead with the elections, with the possible exception of President Joseph Aoun, who reportedly sees any postponement as damaging to the credibility of his tenure. Within political circles, there is already quiet discussion of a two-year delay, allowing time for the regional situation to crystallize, especially as the focus remains on ongoing military developments, regionally and even globally. For now, however, few are willing to say so openly. Ultimately, much will depend on how events in the region unfold.