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ANALYSIS

Israel-Iran: A war for nothing?

Iran lost this war. But, the fact that the regime is still standing and its nuclear capabilities have not been completely destroyed nuances its strategic dimension.

Israel-Iran: A war for nothing?

A poster depicting American President Donald Trump bowing before Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hung in the southern suburbs of Beirut, on June 25, 2025. (Credit: AFP)

It had long been predicted that Israel and Iran would eventually engage in open warfare. Given Iran's regional ambitions and Israel's military superiority, such a confrontation had become nearly inevitable, especially after Oct. 7, 2023. Yet, the conflict, when it did occur, was still surprising in several aspects.The first surprise was that the 12-day war remained "localized." A few years ago, the idea that these two adversaries could clash without setting the entire region ablaze seemed unthinkable. That this did not happen is due to three factors. A report you (may have) missed Iran-Israel truce: Initial human and material toll for the '12-Day War' First, Israel's strategy involved cutting off the "octopus's tentacles" before attacking the "head." Iran's allies in the region, starting with Hezbollah, were too weak to join the...
It had long been predicted that Israel and Iran would eventually engage in open warfare. Given Iran's regional ambitions and Israel's military superiority, such a confrontation had become nearly inevitable, especially after Oct. 7, 2023. Yet, the conflict, when it did occur, was still surprising in several aspects.The first surprise was that the 12-day war remained "localized." A few years ago, the idea that these two adversaries could clash without setting the entire region ablaze seemed unthinkable. That this did not happen is due to three factors. A report you (may have) missed Iran-Israel truce: Initial human and material toll for the '12-Day War' First, Israel's strategy involved cutting off the "octopus's tentacles" before attacking the "head." Iran's allies in the region, starting with Hezbollah, were too weak to join the...
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