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ANALYSIS

Golan or Sinai? Israeli scenarios for the future of south Lebanon

Beirut is banking on an international force and would not oppose it being assigned missions anywhere on the territory, including north of the Litani River.

Golan or Sinai? Israeli scenarios for the future of south Lebanon

Buildings destroyed by Israel lie in ruins in Mansouri, as seen from Haniyeh, Lebanon, Sept. 29, 2026. (Credit: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters)

In southern Lebanon, Israel would like to divide the territory into several zones. Among its latest proposals are a "yellow line" and a "gray line," with the latter extending about four to five kilometers from the Blue Line, which marks the international border. Israel intends to negotiate on this basis, while maintaining its refusal to allow residents to return to the area within what it dubs the "gray line." At the same time, it seeks to discuss arrangements for the "yellow line" zone, which stretches 10 kilometers deep, or even further in certain sectors.Through its military and political pressure, Tel Aviv aims to present Lebanon with two options: either see southern Lebanon develop along the lines of the Golan model or the Sinai model. The Golan model would mean maintaining Israeli control...
In southern Lebanon, Israel would like to divide the territory into several zones. Among its latest proposals are a "yellow line" and a "gray line," with the latter extending about four to five kilometers from the Blue Line, which marks the international border. Israel intends to negotiate on this basis, while maintaining its refusal to allow residents to return to the area within what it dubs the "gray line." At the same time, it seeks to discuss arrangements for the "yellow line" zone, which stretches 10 kilometers deep, or even further in certain sectors.Through its military and political pressure, Tel Aviv aims to present Lebanon with two options: either see southern Lebanon develop along the lines of the Golan model or the Sinai model. The Golan model would mean maintaining Israeli control...
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