War weakens Chinese influence in Middle East, analysts say

China is forced to watch as a spectator to the Iran-Israel war, a conflict that weakens its diplomatic efforts to strengthen its influence in the Middle East, according to analysts.

Beijing has been trying for several years to establish itself as a mediator in the region. China facilitated the historic diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it presents itself as a more neutral actor than the United States — a close ally of Israel.

As the top customer for Iranian oil, China has enabled the Islamic Republic to keep its economy afloat in recent years, suffocated by sanctions. But in the face of the recent Iran-Israel war and U.S. bombings on Iranian soil, Chinese diplomacy has had to settle for calls for de-escalation. “Beijing has not offered concrete aid to Tehran” and remains “on the sidelines,” observes Craig Singleton, a China specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a rather neoconservative American research center.

China “sticks to statements: condemnations, communications at the U.N., calls for dialogue, because promising too much and delivering too little in the end would highlight the limits of its capacity for action,” he emphasizes. “The result is a noticeably timid response that shows the little actual influence China can have for Iran when hostilities break out,” he says to AFP.

After the U.S. unilateral withdrawal in 2018 from the international agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, signed three years earlier, Beijing had strengthened its ties with Tehran.

'Total collapse'

Chinese President Xi Jinping had described bilateral relations in 2023 as “strategic” and affirmed support for Iran in its fight against “harassment.”

A retired senior Chinese military official, Liu Qiang, was even more explicit in an article published in June on the academic site Aisixiang. “The survival of Iran is part of China's national security,” says Liu, director of the educational committee of the RimPac Center for Strategic and International Studies in Shanghai. According to him, China must take “proactive measures” in the conflict to ensure that Iran “is not broken by the war” or “strangled by the United States and Israel.”

According to analysts, the ties Beijing maintains with Tehran are also aimed at counterbalancing the regional influence of the United States, Israel and Gulf countries. “Iran fits into China's strategy of responding to U.S. hegemony and, to a lesser extent, NATO expansion,” explains Tuvia Gering, a China specialist at the American think-tank Atlantic Council.

This strategy intensified after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria and the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, all supported by Tehran. “Beijing sought to prevent a total collapse of Iran's regional role,” notes Gering, particularly highlighting Chinese initiatives to revive the nuclear agreement.

Military equipment

China condemned recent U.S. strikes in Iran and called all parties to de-escalation, “particularly Israel.” It also expressed support for a political settlement and a cease-fire. Despite their privileged ties, Beijing is unlikely to provide Tehran with advanced military equipment, fearing a direct confrontation with Washington, analysts note.

“Iran needs more than simple U.N. statements or missile components,” says Andrea Ghiselli, a professor at the University of Exeter (England). “It needs air defenses and fighter jets. Things that China could provide, but whose implementation would take time, not to mention the very negative reaction from Israel, and especially — now that they are directly involved — from the United States,” he adds.

The United States has urged China to pressure Iran to prevent a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for hydrocarbons exports. However, Ahmed Aboudouh, a researcher at the British think tank Chatham House, doubts that Beijing has the means to do so. “China’s position in the Middle East is very weakened since the beginning of the conflict,” he estimates. “Everyone in the region understands that China has little, if any, influence to play a real role in de-escalation.”