People spend the day on the beach in the port city of Sour in southern Lebanon on June 8, 2024, amid ongoing Israeli strikes. (Credit: Anwar Amro/AFP)
BEIRUT — As the environment deteriorates, Mediterranean countries, particularly those in the East, are expected to experience the consequences of climate change more intensely than the rest of the world, according to the research of 55 environment experts, published in a report shared at this year’s COP29.
Countries already straining to adapt to environmental disruptions are facing additional pressure as a result of factors such as overpopulation in the south, economic activities along the coast, mass tourism, several ongoing and interrelated conflicts and poor resource management by authorities.
The report, released on Nov. 18 during the U.N. climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, found that “the Mediterranean coast is one of the regions in the world most at risk of composite flooding [sea-level rise], whose effects will be worsened by climate change and demographic growth along the coast.”
Fifty-five experts from the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (Medecc), were commissioned by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Barcelona Convention and Plan Bleu, to put the report together.
It warns that one of the most dramatic consequences of global warming is the rise in sea levels, currently at 2.6 millimeters per year, double the rate of the 20th century. By the year 2100, the rise in sea levels could displace 20 million people.
“Marine heatwaves, whose frequency and duration have increased by 40 percent and 15 percent respectively over the past two decades, promote carbon emissions and the emergence of non-native tropical species, which in turn have various ecological and socio-economic impacts on the Mediterranean,” the report states.
“Projections indicate an increase in surface air temperatures, the frequency and intensity of heat extremes, a rise in sea levels, evapotranspiration and a decrease in precipitation, depending on the level of future greenhouse gas emissions,” Salpie Djoundourian, one of the project coordinators representing Lebanon, explained to L’Orient-Le Jour.
Climate change poses a serious threat to ecosystems as well as to various economic activities, such as agriculture and fishing, Djoundourian explained. Further change is also anticipated to exacerbate water shortages, which 180 million people in the Mediterranean region already suffer from. These water shortages are compounded by energy insecurity (due to dependence on imported fossil fuels in most countries), food insecurity (also linked to import reliance), and risks to ecosystems (resulting from both climate change and poor practices).
Plastic pollution in the Mediterranean
As a result of resource mismanagement, water, air and soil around the world is polluted and coastlines are seriously affected, especially by plastic waste. “Plastic waste accounts for 82 percent of visible litter, 95-100 percent of all floating marine debris and more than 50 percent of seabed waste in the Mediterranean Sea,” Djoundourian said.
Eastern Mediterranean countries, and their vulnerable coastlines, are particularly burdened by endemic issues that hinder their ability to adapt to climate change, and so the Medecc report recommends solutions that take into account the link between the water, energy, food and ecosystems sectors (WEFE or ‘Water, Energy, Food and Ecosystems Nexus’).
“Every measure taken to address climate change should account for the synergy between these four sectors,” the expert emphasized. This approach, while relatively more expensive in the short term due to the required investments in technological innovations and nature-based solutions, delivers more effective results in the long term.
While technology and science offer partial solutions to pollution, these alone are insufficient without green investments (focused on nature conservation), institutional reforms, economic and financial tools (such as new taxes), and awareness campaigns aimed at driving societal behavioral change. “All these options should be grounded in the four pillars of WEFE,” Djoundourian said.
The case of Lebanon
What about Lebanon? “The war [between Hezbollah and Israel from October 2023 to November 2024] and the multiple crises [socio-economic, political and institutional], have significantly undermined Lebanon’s ability to cope with the consequences of climate change,” Djoundourian pointed out.
She highlighted the dynamism of the private sector, praising its innovative solutions, such as affordable solar-based technologies, advancements in agricultural practices, and the introduction of alternative food sources like non-native fish species, but in her opinion, the successful implementation of transformative and comprehensive solutions still hinges on essential governance reforms.
