Cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah: Our co-editor-in-chief Anthony Samrani answered your questions

And that's the end of this live Q&A with our co-editor-in-chief Anthony Samrani.

We thank you for participating in such large numbers. Unfortunately, we couldn't answer all of your questions, but we will be organizing another session soon.
In the meantime, you can follow all the latest updates on the cease-fire in Lebanon here.

See you soon!

We continue with a question from Saad Habbal:
When do you think the political deadlock will be resolved, starting with the presidential election and the appointment of the prime minister? Will Hezbollah accept the prospect of a government that is not aligned with the Hezbollah/8 March alliance?

Hello Saad Habbal, thank you for your question.
It’s difficult to answer at the moment, as the situation is not entirely clear. Will Hezbollah agree to step back, or at least to compromise more internally? Are the other actors able to agree on a candidate?
In my opinion, there are two elements that should not be underestimated. One: Hezbollah feels weakened and will want to secure its gains, which will not make negotiations easy. Two: even if the party plays along, the other parties are far from being Swedish social democrats. Will they be willing to set aside their differences? Will they agree to commit to the path of reform if they can no longer use the ‘geopolitical excuse’? I seriously doubt it.

A question from Ahmed Jamal:
There is a similarity between this cease-fire and the 2006 agreement. What is different today, concretely? Will we see changes in Lebanon’s policy?

Hello Ahmed Jamal, thank you for your question.
There are indeed many similarities, which highlights the absurdity of this conflict. What’s different today is the Israeli-American agreement that now overshadows everything else. It allows Israel to intervene in Lebanon if Hezbollah does not comply with the terms of the agreement.

Adel Attie asks:
Do we have the official position of Hezbollah regarding the cease-fire agreement and the deployment of the Lebanese army as the only legitimate force in the South?

Hello Adel Attie, thank you for being with us today.
Hezbollah’s secretary general, Naim Qassem, endorsed the agreement during his last speech. Hezbollah will likely allow the Lebanese army to deploy, but will it continue to play with fire in southern Lebanon? Will it try to test the vigilance of the monitoring committee and Israel? If that’s the case, we can expect regular strikes against its positions.

The next question is from Dominique Simpore:

In your opinion, is there a way for the Trump administration — which made peace in the Middle East one of the priorities of its new mandate — to achieve a true peace between Lebanon and Israel, without resorting to open war with Iran?

Hello Dominique Simpore, thank you for your question.
I currently don’t see a possibility of reaching a peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Furthermore, I don’t think it would be a good thing in the current circumstances and without the creation of a Palestinian state. There is an armistice agreement between the two countries dating back to 1949, which could be modernized. Lebanon could also play a leading role in relaunching the two-state solution, considering that the Abdullah plan, ‘peace for land,’ was announced from Beirut.

Here’s a question from Roy Bou Hamdane:
Some people claim that the cease-fire will last for 60 days initially. Is this period only mentioned for the withdrawal of Israeli troops in the agreement? What’s the situation?

Hello Roy Bou Hamdane,
The 60 days are the period during which all the terms of the cease-fire must be implemented. If this is done, the cease-fire will be extended beyond this period.

We continue with a question from Bady Abou Jaoude:
What are the political and social consequences of relocating Hezbollah’s weapons to the north of the Litani River?

Hello Bady Abou Jaoude, excellent question!
Can Lebanon coexist with Hezbollah’s weapons in the north of the Litani? I don’t believe so. And at the same time, what can be done to avoid tensions, or in the worst-case scenario and in the long term, a new civil war? This issue must be addressed politically as soon as possible to prevent the worst-case scenario. A small narrative is already emerging in Lebanon that separates ‘us’ (Hezbollah supporters) from ‘them.’ It is absolutely crucial to prevent this discourse from gaining momentum and to quickly work toward reconciling Lebanon’s memories and pains.

Here is a question from JK:
Why is the Lebanese Army so weak? Will they be able to accomplish anything without Hezbollah’s approval?

Hello JK, thank you for being here.
There is a tendency to underestimate the capabilities of the Lebanese Army. Its supposed weakness is often highlighted to justify the continued armament of Hezbollah. It is, of course, under-equipped and cannot match Israel’s strength — nor can Hezbollah, but in the current context, what matters most is political will, not the military’s power. Will it be able to act without direct confrontation with Hezbollah? Will it be respected by all Lebanese? It is a perilous mission.

We continue with Ahmad Benni:
I am a student, and I would like to know if we have any visibility on the date for the resumption of in-person classes.

Hello Ahmad Benni, thank you for being here and good luck with your studies. We will inquire and try to get an answer as soon as possible.

Laurent Hawath asks:
Resolution 1701 stipulates that "the Lebanese government shall extend its authority over the entire Lebanese territory, in accordance with the provisions of Resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), and the relevant provisions of the Taif Agreement, in order to exercise full sovereignty over it, so that no weapons are found there without the consent of the Lebanese government and that no authority other than the Lebanese government’s is exercised there."
When the parliament speaker announces that there will be full implementation of Resolution 1701, does he include this clause, or does he consider it inapplicable because it refers to Resolution 1559?

Hello Laurent Hawath, thank you for your question.
As in 2006, everyone interprets Resolution 1701 according to their own interests. When Nabih Berri refers to it, he obviously does not include Resolution 1559. For years, the Hezbollah/Amal duo has exploited the ambiguities, operating on the assumption that ‘what is not seen does not exist.’ This is no longer possible today. Have they understood this? I’m not sure.

You are many, and unfortunately, I won’t be able to answer all the questions. Thank you for being with us, let's continue.

The following is a question from Hoda Sabbagh:
Why didn’t Netanyahu fully achieve his full objective with Hezbollah?

Hello Hoda, thank you for your question.
You mean, eradicate the movement? It did not manage to annihilate Hamas after more than a year of war in the small Gaza enclave, completely destroyed, and I don’t think it could have done so in Lebanon. The Israeli army seems tired, and a large part of the objectives have been achieved. Who among the experts, diplomats, journalists, would have believed a few months ago that Israel could deal such a blow to Hezbollah in such a short time and without paying a heavy price? The war, however, may not be over. The cease-fire can quickly turn into a truce, an escalation against Iran could involve Hezbollah, and the suffocation strategy will take years.

We continue with a question from Carl Yazbeck:
Hezbollah seems to be claiming victory — are they aware that they are now expected to surrender all their weapons?

Hello Carl Yazbeck, thank you for your question.
Lebanon is in ruins because of a senseless war from which it had nothing to gain, and today Hezbollah supporters are celebrating the ‘victory’ of the party. This seems mainly like a way for the party to prove that it is still in control. I don't think Hezbollah intends to lay down its arms; there's nothing to suggest that, and this is likely to cause significant internal tensions.

Here is a question from Melinda Kerbaje:
What will become of Lebanon and the rivalry between Israel and the Hezbollah/Iran tandem following this agreement?

Hello Melinda Kerbaje, thank you for being with us.
Many complex questions in one. I'll try to keep it brief. The skeptics, myself included, would say that Lebanon will become more like Syria — meaning the war will stop without truly ending. Israel will intervene as it pleases, the destroyed areas won’t be rebuilt, and Lebanon will gradually lose even more of its remaining international support. On the other hand, the optimists might argue that the weakening of Hezbollah and the new geopolitical configuration open up possibilities and could lay the groundwork for a sovereign state.

And now a question from Paul-René Safa:
Do the U.S. and France intend to pressure Hezbollah into disarming, a sine qua non for reestablishing true sovereignty over the 10,452 km²?

Good morning Paul-René, thank you for your question.
It is clear that Israel and the United States aim to suffocate Hezbollah by cutting the border with Syria and controlling the port and airport to ensure it no longer receives arms and funds. But will that be enough to force it to disarm? I don't think so. The risk is that Lebanon could end up under a form of dual tutelage, with the Israeli-American axis controlling the south and the Hezbollah/Amal duo in the north. However, the war is not over, and it will be much more difficult for Hezbollah to impose itself on other factions than it has in the past. Benjamin Netanyahu justified the cease-fire by stating his intention to "focus" on Iran, which could have a significant impact on Lebanon. Furthermore, it is not excluded that Lebanese factions will attempt an internal negotiation with Hezbollah to resolve the issue of its armament, although this will be far from easy.

The next question is from Jean-Marc Fahed:
Will airlines resume normal operations, and if so, how soon?

Hello Jean-Marc, thank you for your question.
We don’t know yet. But we can assume that if the cease-fire is indeed respected for a certain period, airlines will likely resume operations soon, especially with the holidays approaching. We will try to get more information as quickly as possible.

We will start with a question from J-M Z:

What do we know about the terms of the cease-fire agreement? And more importantly, does it include the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Lebanon?

Hello J-MZ, thank you for joining us this morning,
The terms of the agreement have not been made public. However, L'Orient-Le Jour revealed the main points yesterday. If all goes well, Israeli forces are expected to withdraw within sixty days, while the Lebanese army is supposed to deploy in southern Lebanon. However, several areas of uncertainty remain: how much power does the Israeli-American annex, which is not part of the agreement, give Israel the right to intervene at will in Lebanon? Benjamin Netanyahu stated yesterday that Israel retains full freedom, which was not stated by President Joe Biden. The second gray area: what exactly will be the role of the monitoring committee, and does this involve the deployment of American troops, even in limited numbers, in Lebanon? A third question: how will everything be controlled during these sixty days? Who will prevent the residents of the South from returning to their villages, at least to assess the damage? Who will distinguish between residents and combatants? Who will ensure the dismantling of Hezbollah's infrastructure in southern Lebanon? In principle, it will be the Lebanese army that will bear this heavy and complex responsibility.

Hello,

We will begin this new Q&A session with our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani.
As a reminder, you can send your questions to the following address: livechatolj@lorientlejour.com

Good morning,

Today at 11 a.m., Beirut time, our co-editor-in-chief Anthony Samrani will answer all your questions here about the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah reached last night and its implementation in Lebanon.

You can send your questions in advance to the following email address: livechatolj@lorientlejour.com