Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman described Iran as a "sister republic" and condemned Israel's "collective genocide" in Gaza. (Credit: AFP archive photo)
The Middle East of 2024 is not the same as in 2016, a time marked by intense hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran. At the opening of the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Riyadh on Nov. 11, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) appeared intent on formalizing this shift.
Israel must “respect the territorial sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran … and refrain from attacking it,” the Saudi crown prince said, referring to Israel’s attacks against Iran, part of a chain of retaliations between the two countries.
The Saudi leader also referred to Iran as a “sister republic,” a term usually reserved for the “brotherly peoples” of the Arab world. He said that Israel is committing “collective genocide” in Gaza and that, in order to achieve peace in the region, it must withdraw from territories occupied since 1967, including the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Syrian Golan.
This rhetoric contrasts sharply with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vision of the Middle East, which centers on an alliance between Israel and Arab countries against Iran. In recent months, Riyadh has consistently signaled its closer ties with the Islamic Republic. Alongside joint military exercises in the Gulf of Oman, Saudi Chief of Staff Fayyad bin Hamid al-Ruwaili met with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Bagheri, in Tehran on Nov. 10. This high-level visit included talks with Iran’s head of intelligence and security, suggesting strengthened cooperation on strategic issues going forward.
No normalization without a Palestinian state
MBS has made it very clear over recent months that Saudi will not embark on a normalization process with Israel until there is first the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, these maneuvers cannot entirely conceal the kingdom’s lingering mistrust of the Islamic Republic. Gulf countries fear that a new Trump administration might grant Israel more leeway in its escalation with Iran, according to diplomats cited by the Financial Times. MBS is determined to avoid being drawn into a regional conflict alongside Tehran and paying the price. This would jeopardize his Vision 2030 economic diversification program.
The new American government under Trump is expected to include anti-Iran and pro-Israel hawks Senator Marco Rubio in Foreign Affairs and Michael Waltz as head of National Security. If the ‘maximum pressure’ policy against Iran is reinstated, Riyadh would find itself walking a fine line.
“Weakening Iran is one of its goals, but a conflict-driven approach is not in its interest, as the radical wing of the Iranian regime would not hesitate to strike American interests in the region or oil sites, including in Saudi Arabia,” said Hasni Abidi, director of the Geneva-based Study And Research Center For The Arab And Mediterranean World (CERMAM). Abidi also noted that the Saudis have still not received the arms shipments approved by Washington this summer.
MBS' statement at the Riyadh summit, echoed in the final declaration, addresses both Arab populations — frustrated by their leaders' passivity — and Israel, as well as Trump himself.
“It reflects the concerns of Arab countries, feeling drawn into a war they did not seek and finding themselves in a highly vulnerable position despite their strategy of avoidance,” explained Abidi.
There is no assurance that Donald Trump, despite his close relationship with MBS and his skill in transactional diplomacy, will succeed in convincing Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel without addressing the Palestinian issue — even by offering Riyadh high-level American security guarantees, as outlined in Joe Biden's proposed ‘mega deal.’
“In the current context, the domestic political costs for Saudi Arabia of a normalization agreement with Israel could outweigh the benefits of an American security umbrella,” wrote researcher Karim Sadjadpour in Foreign Affairs.
In response to the Riyadh summit, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who oversees West Bank settlements and is known for his ultranationalist views, stated that “2025 will be the year of Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.” The Israeli government is now openly advancing plans to recolonize northern Gaza, where the forced displacement of Palestinians has intensified in the last two months alongside the war in Lebanon.
