Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani and Major General Joel "J.B." Vowell attend the first session of negotiations between Iraq and the United States to wind down the International Coalition mission in Baghdad, Iraq, January 27, 2024. (Credits: Hadi Mizban/ Reuters)
The United States and Iraq have reached a preliminary agreement on the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The plan, which is still pending final approval from both governments and a formal announcement, calls for hundreds of troops to leave by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026.
“We have an agreement; it’s now just a question of when to announce it,” a senior U.S. official said.
The U.S. and Iraq are also exploring a new advisory role that could see some U.S. troops remain in Iraq after the main drawdown. An official announcement was initially scheduled for earlier this year but was delayed due to regional tensions related to the Gaza war and to finalize remaining details.
Sources include five U.S. officials, two officials from other coalition nations and three Iraqi officials, all speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.
Farhad Alaaldin, foreign affairs adviser to the Iraqi prime minister, confirmed that technical talks with Washington on the coalition drawdown have concluded but did not provide specifics on the plan. “We are now on the brink of transitioning the relationship between Iraq and members of the international coalition to a new level, focusing on bilateral relations in military, security, economic and cultural areas,” he stated.
The U.S.-led coalition did not respond to queries regarding the deal, and both a U.S. State Department spokesperson and a defense official pointed to a joint statement from President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in April. The statement affirmed their intent to review factors affecting the mission and transition to enduring bilateral security partnerships.
The agreement is the result of more than six months of negotiations initiated by Prime Minister al-Sudani in January, following attacks by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups on U.S. forces in Iraq. These attacks have resulted in the deaths of three American troops and injuries to dozens more, leading to U.S. retaliatory strikes and weakening efforts to stabilize Iraq.
The U.S. currently has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State (ISIS). The group, which once controlled roughly a third of both countries, was territorially defeated in Iraq by the end of 2017 and in Syria in 2019. Iraq has since demonstrated its capability to manage any remaining threats, according to Alaaldin.
The U.S. initially invaded Iraq in 2003, toppling dictator Saddam Hussein, and withdrew in 2011. The coalition returned in 2014 to fight ISIS. Other coalition nations, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, also contribute troops.
Under the proposed plan, all coalition forces would vacate the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Anbar province and significantly reduce their presence in Baghdad by September 2025. U.S. and coalition troops are expected to remain in Erbil, in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan region, for about an additional year, until the end of 2026, to support ongoing operations against ISIS in Syria.
The drawdown would signify a significant shift in Washington’s military posture in the region, where U.S. forces also play a strategic role against Iranian influence. This position has gained importance amid the escalating confrontation between Israel and Iran, with U.S. forces in Iraq recently intercepting rockets and drones fired towards Israel.
Prime Minister al-Sudani has noted that while the U.S. troops' assistance is appreciated, their presence has become a focal point of instability, often targeted and responding with strikes that are not always coordinated with the Iraqi government.
The agreement, once officially announced, is expected to be a political win for al-Sudani as he navigates Iraq's complex relationship with both Washington and Tehran. The first phase of the drawdown is set to conclude one month before Iraq's parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2025.
For the U.S., the two-year timeline provides “breathing room,” allowing for potential adjustments if regional conditions change, a U.S. official said.
The evolving dynamics in Iraq and the broader region underscore the delicate balance that the U.S. and Iraq must maintain as they transition from active military engagement to a new phase of partnership and security cooperation.