Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) rally after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandis to call for the withdrawal of all US troops from Iraq, in Baghdad, Jan. 6, 2020. (Credit: AFP)
Iraqi militias backed by Iran have announced an end to their informal truce with the United States, a move likely to heighten regional tensions, according to the Emirati daily, The National.
The decision, reported by multiple outlets, follows a late July 2024 U.S. airstrike that killed four members of Kataeb Hezbollah brigade. This shift underscores the potential for further escalation, as Iranian and Hezbollah responses to the recent assassinations of Fouad Shukur in Beirut’s southern suburbs and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran remain tied to Doha cease-fire negotiations in Gaza.
American "procrastination and blockage" in Iraq exit
By July, strikes targeting U.S. interests had resumed, causing neither casualties nor damage but intended to pressure the Iraqi government and the United States to accelerate discussions on withdrawing forces from the Washington-led international coalition. Since January 2024, the Iraqi government, under pressure from pro-Iranian factions, has been negotiating the coalition’s exit, seeking bilateral agreements with the various parties involved. Haider al-Lami, a member of the political bureau of the al-Nujaba movement — one of the most vocal opponents of the American presence in Iraq — told The National that the U.S. had been engaging in “procrastination and blockage” during the talks.
A final round of discussions took place in July, during which the framework for a withdrawal was outlined but not finalized. According to The National, the proposed agreement would see the U.S. coalition begin evacuating its bases in Baghdad and Anbar in September 2024, with the mission officially ending in September 2025. However, some troops are expected to remain in the Iraqi Kurdistan region until 2026 to oversee counter-terrorism operations in Syria, where the threat from the Islamic State remains high.
Strikes in the next few days?
An "almost finalized" agreement was expected to be announced earlier this month, but the Aug. 5 incident at Ain al-Assad base delayed the announcement. The attack, in which rockets injured five American soldiers at this air base in western Iraq, was claimed by a group called "The Revolutionaries," part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, active since the start of the Gaza war. While the strike could be seen within the broader context of regional tensions, it was likely a direct response to a July 30 U.S. attack on a base of the 47th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces — a coalition of mostly pro-Iranian armed factions integrated into the Iraqi army — in Babil province. The U.S. strike killed four fighters from the brigade, which is affiliated with Kataeb Hezbollah, one of the most anti-American militias.
Haider al-Lami, of the al-Nujaba movement, told The National that reprisals could come "in the next few days and target more than one location, not necessarily Iraq, Syria, or the Zionist entity [Israel]." Iranian state media reported in early August that the Islamic Republic and its affiliates were conducting a "quadrilateral operation" against Israel, which was blamed for the assassination of the head of Hamas's political bureau in Tehran. This suggests the possible involvement of Iraqi militias alongside Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis.
Nevertheless, while the official announcement of a withdrawal agreement has been delayed, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein said that discussions were continuing, although the regional context and political uncertainty in the United States ahead of the November presidential election complicate any announcement. Since the American invasion of 2003, which plunged Iraq into a spiral of violence and instability, the American military presence has remained a bone of contention within Iraqi society and political elites. Iranian-backed Shiite militias are calling for a total withdrawal of American forces, while Sunni and Kurdish parties are opposed, fearing a security vacuum.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.