Haniyeh’s assassination, a slap in the face for Qatar, without undermining its role as mediator

“How can mediation succeed when one side assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” asked Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Thani on X, hours after the assassination of Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. This question reflects Qatar’s irritation at what is perceived as Israel’s persistent sabotage of cease-fire talks.

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Saudi Arabia did not react

Qatar has found itself in a complex position in recent months, caught between its role as a key mediator in the Gaza negotiations and criticism by Israel and some US officials for hosting Hamas’ political leadership in Doha.

This arrangement was made with the backing of Washington, which was keen not to let Hamas settle in Iran after it was kicked out of Syria in 2012, for fear it would get out of hand.

Faced with criticism, al-Thani said in April that it was time for Qatar to make a “complete reassessment” of its role as mediator, threatening to withdraw from the negotiations.

“It was more an expression of irritation than a fundamental change in position,” said Gerd Nonneman, chair of International Politics at Georgetown University in Doha.

But it is also a reminder of its helpfulness, as a counterbalance to Hamas’s presence which has become troublesome. “If the Americans think they have a better chance with other negotiators or facilitators, they are free to tell Doha to close the Hamas office and end its efforts, but they don’t [officially], which in itself tells something,” said Ali Bakir, assistant professor at Qatar University.

Behind the scenes, however, the US had asked Qatar to expel Hamas if it continues to reject a cease-fire with Israel, an American official told the Washington Post in May, when the movement was accused of hardening its conditions.

Doha had then advised Hamas officials, including Haniyeh, to start looking for a host country should they need to leave, a diplomat told the Post.

“This may have been a way to calm Israeli critics,” said Agnès Levallois, vice-president of the Institute for Research and Studies on the Mediterranean and the Middle East (iReMMO). “But did they intend to go through with it? We don’t know.” The idea of transferring the office to Iraq or Oman was discussed but never materialized.

Haniyeh buried in Qatar

After Haniyeh's assassination, Qatar agreed to allow his burial on its soil. The burial will take place on Friday, Aug. 2, at Lusail Cemetery, north of Doha, following a funeral ceremony in Tehran the previous day.

“Qatar is signaling its disagreement with this assassination,” said Levallois.

“This is a significant blow, not only to Qatar’s position as a negotiator but also to the broader negotiations,” said Nonneman.

But does the death of Hamas's key figure weaken Qatar's role in seeking an agreement? “It could weaken Qatar, as its mediation didn’t prevent Israel from carrying out this operation,” Levallois said. “For Qatar to remain relevant, there needs to be a genuine willingness to resume negotiations, which doesn’t seem to be the case on the Israeli side.”

The U.S. might seize the opportunity, with Hamas now isolated in Doha without any other safe haven, to pressure Qatar into pushing Hamas to accept a cease-fire on Israel’s terms.

However, is this stance realistic given that the primary obstacles currently come from Tel Aviv?

“The lack of U.S. pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu undermines the mediation process and complicates Doha’s mission,” said Bakir. “It’s unrealistic to expect Qatar to pressure Hamas in this environment.”

What’s more, the assassination of Hamas' political leader starkly highlights Washington’s waning influence over Israel.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the U.S. was unaware of the strike in advance, according to CNN. “This is a blow to Qatar, but especially to the U.S., as it shows once again that Israel does what it wants, when it wants, how it wants, disregarding even Washington’s directives,” said Levallois.

Signing a cease-fire agreement and securing the release of hostages in Gaza remains a priority for the Biden administration, eager for a major diplomatic success before the November presidential election.

Without accusing Israel of undermining negotiations, the administration has recently refined its rhetoric toward Qatar, which has once again been called upon to defuse tensions.

Following Haniyeh's assassination, Antony Blinken spoke with Mohammed al-Thani, praising “Qatar’s essential role in promoting lasting regional peace.” According to CNN, Blinken also asked his Qatari counterpart to urge Hezbollah and Iran not to retaliate against Israeli strikes. The Qatari official agreed to relay the messages. The State Department declined to comment.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Joelle El Khoury.