Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan (Credit: AFP)
BEIRUT — More than eight months after the start of the war between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, Armenia on Friday announced its recognition of the State of Palestine. A decision linked to external as well as internal considerations for the government.
After a decadeslong territorial conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Baku recaptured the region from Armenian separatists last year in September. Armenia's neighboring country Azerbaijan has been receiving advanced weapons from Israel for years, in exchange for natural gas. A longtime ally of Yerevan, the Kremlin seems to have abandoned it at this time, despite peacekeeping troops being deployed in the region since a 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020. Meanwhile, the Europeans were seemingly open to sacrificing Nagorno-Karabakh so that Russian troops withdraw from the area.
Isolated on the international scene, Yerevan has been trying to secure a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. Domestically, large protests have been taking place against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan following the Nagorno-Karabakh debacle that led most of the region's population to flee, and after the head of government recently handed four villages, which were seized by Armenia in the 1990s, to Baku.
L'Orient Today interviewed the head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Stefan Meister, to understand the motives behind Armenia's recognition of Palestine amid the former's current domestic political situation and its isolation in the international arena.
L'Orient Today: How does this move translate for Armenia's foreign policy?
Meister: Armenia has traditionally good relations with Arab countries and not with Israel. I think, on the one hand, it is a strong signal of support for the Palestinian people. On the other hand, it is also a signal to Iran that it wants to keep close relations, and to Israel that its support for Azerbaijan is against the interests of Armenia. Since Israel is a key provider of weapons, drones, etc. to Azerbaijan and has never supported Armenia, this is a clear signal that Armenia positions itself against Azerbaijan and its supporters. It looks for support from Iran and other countries of the region in the conflict with Azerbaijan. We clearly see that Israel's support for Azerbaijan was crucial to winning the second Karabakh war in 2020 and despite the forced exodus of Karabakh Armenians from the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Israel still supports Azerbaijan. For the international community and especially Western countries, this might be a problematic signal, since most of them support Israel. But I see a clear shift also in Europe that the situation for civil society in the Palestinian areas is not acceptable and a [political solution is required] for this conflict. I do not think, that there will be much punishment or any serious consequences for Armenia.
L'Orient Today: How can you explain the fact that Armenia is seeking the support of Iran and other countries in the region in its conflict with Azerbaijan but at the same time, the Armenian prime minister is trying to sign a peace treaty with Baku?
Meister: I think we are in a very difficult period for Armenia, which lost its main security guarantor Russia. Armenia is trying to improve relations with the EU but needs also the support of Iran and other regional players to balance and deter an Azeri attack. Armenia wants a peace agreement, but Azerbaijan does not want it as it needs the conflict with Armenia, since the majority of the Azeris are as poor as Armenians in a much richer state, and they have not benefited economically from the victory in the second Karabakh war. That means, the leadership in Baku has an interest in ongoing conflict with Armenia, maybe small wars, taking slices of territory and Armenia is militarily weak. At this moment, Armenia is trying to get as much support from all actors in the region and Iran is crucial. Armenia is not really isolated internationally, it has much better relations with the US and the EU now, and [it has] improved its relations with Turkey. But it has no security guarantees, this is its main problem.
L'Orient Today: Do you believe that the Armenian population is happy with this move? What could be the impact on the popularity of the prime minister internally following this decision?
Meister: Yes, I think so, there is a strong sympathy with the Palestinians in Armenian society, people follow the war and the situation there and they are supportive of this decision. I do not think that this issue is so big that it will really increase the popularity of Pashinyan. Other topics like the security situation, negotiations with Azerbaijan, reforms in the country and relations with Russia are more important to the society.