Did an Iranian general announce Lebanon will go to war?

“The war has spread (...), Lebanon is taking part (...) and no one can control the situation anymore,” reported Iran’s official news agency (IRNA). The statement, made on Monday by Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the aerospace division of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, did not go unnoticed in Lebanon.

Since Oct. 7, Hezbollah has maintained a “support front” in southern Lebanon for Hamas. Hajizadeh’s remarks seem to be more than a simple description of the realities on the ground and could be indicative of Tehran’s desire to increase Lebanon's involvement in the conflict. The comments come amid heightened tensions on the border, where both sides have undermined the rules of engagement.

Since the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on Oct. 7, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged sporadic fire but have refrained from turning the border into an open front. Yet, in the war along the border, which remains unnamed, Hezbollah has lost at least 74 fighters. More than five Israeli soldiers have also been killed and many towns on both sides have been evacuated.

Should we perceive Hajizadeh’s remarks as an Iranian desire to push for escalation? “At this stage, that is probably not the intention of Iran, which is benefiting politically from the current situation,” said political scientist Karim Bitar. Since the start of the war, Tehran has established itself as a key player in a region that was moving towards normalization with Israel, he explained. “These [Hajizadeh’s] statements are more part of the psychological warfare that is underway,” Bitar added.

By declaring war on behalf of Lebanon, Iran is reminding its adversaries, namely Israel and the US, that it holds the keys to opening a “second front” to Israel’s north. The opening of this second front could lead to a potentially destructive war, one that would likely involve the Americans who, from the very first days following the Hamas offensive, dispatched their navy’s flagships to the eastern Mediterranean. This Iranian official has made similar threats before. Two years ago, Hajizadeh described Gaza and Lebanon as Iran’s “front lines” against Israel, provoking an outcry from the leaders of the anti-Hezbollah opposition.

‘All possibilities are open’

Despite expressing its support for Hamas’ attack, Iran has distanced itself from Al-Aqsa Flood, which it claimed was planned and carried out entirely by the Palestinian group. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdollahian and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stated that Tehran was not involved in the operation.

In his last speech last Saturday, Nasrallah reiterated that Iran "does not make the decisions” for the resistance movements, but supports them financially, militarily and diplomatically.”

How then can we explain Hajizadeh’s remarks, which suggest the Islamic Republic’s willingness to assume a more direct role in the confrontation?

This could be explained by the fact that Hamas is in trouble in Gaza, as the Israeli Army advances further into the Palestinian enclave to Tehran’s great displeasure. Iran would not like to see Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad dislodged from the Gaza Strip, especially since these organizations serve as its gateway to southern Israel (which serves as an easy missile range).

“Tehran’s aim would be to highlight the commitment of the resistance axis’ components to Hamas in Gaza, in particular, the role of Hezbollah, which manages the ‘pressure front’,” said political scientist Karim Mufti.

The situation at Israel’s northern border escalated significantly in recent days, with operations being carried out from the Syrian Golan Heights, and from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah’s increasingly heavy attacks on Israel have left several wounded and killed a civilian, and the Israeli Army recently carried out in-depth strikes on Lebanese territory. Israel warned Lebanon of serious consequences if Hezbollah continued its strikes.

“What we are doing in Gaza we can do in Beirut,” threatened Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday.

“There are those who think they can expand their attacks against our troops and against civilians. This is playing with fire,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, during a visit to Israeli troops stationed on the border with Lebanon. “They should not try us, because we have only shown a little of our strength,” he added.

According to Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, “the Iranian general’s remarks simply reflect reality: we are already at the heart of the battle. However, this does not mean that the risk of escalation can be ruled out. ”

“The escalation is happening gradually, with more and stronger strikes,” Kassir added. “If a ceasefire failed to be achieved or hostilities in Gaza couldn't be halted, all possibilities are open.”

And Lebanon will certainly have no say in the matter.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.