Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 20 years in power. (Credit: Adem Altan/AFP)
After keeping his opposition divided for so long, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s trump card may have been trumped.
The Turkish president may find himself undone in the polls after the country’s third-largest political party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), announced that it will not nominate an independent presidential candidate in elections scheduled for May 14.
In doing so, the HDP is implicitly supporting Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the candidate nominated by the National Alliance, which brings together six parties from the nationalist right to the center-left.
The National Alliance already appears able to end the reis’ 20-year reign. This latest development may ensure a comfortable lead for the opposition coalition, which could carry as much as 12 percent of the electorate.
Many eagerly awaited the HDP’s roadmap, as the party typically plays the role of kingmaker during decisive elections in Turkey. This decision was not a foregone conclusion, as in early January the HDP had decided to run independently.
HDP co-leader Pervin Buldan announced at a press conference Wednesday that the party would not nominate a candidate for presidential elections, stating that it would instead “honor our historical responsibility against the one-man regime."
The decision was made after a meeting with Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the National Alliance, a coalition of six parties from the nationalist right to the center-left.
While Buldan did not directly urge her voters to support Kilicdaroglu, the HDP's support for the opposition had already been expressed in early March by HDP co-chairperson Selahattin Demirtas, who has been imprisoned since 2016.
Buldan emphasized that defeating the Turkish president would push parliament to find "a democratic and peaceful solution to the Kurdish question.” This is a promise previously made by Kilicdaroglu, who has said he would address concerns of the Kurdish minority, which makes up 20 percent of the population in Turkey. Such concerns include lifting restrictions on the Kurdish language.
Ten points ahead
Consisting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and far-right parties, the People’s Alliance had hoped for an independent candidacy from the HDP to split the opposition.
HDP’s decision not to field a candidate is a significant setback for the alliance.
Despite declining popularity due to the economic crisis, the Turkish president received a boost in the polls in early January after implementing measures to alleviate the financial burden on households, ignoring public finances.
The opposition dismissed these moves as electoral tactics while struggling to nominate a common candidate.
The authorities’ mismanagement of the post-earthquake crisis in February, however, fuelled growing public dissatisfaction.
This created an ideal environment for an anti-Erdogan coalition that, for the first time since his first mandate, has the potential to defeat the ruling coalition.
A 75-year-old figure from the Alevi community and a native of one of Turkey’s Kurdish regions, Kilicdaroglu has emerged as a unifying force, facilitating a certain consensus.
In early March, various polls showed that the candidate was leading the Turkish president by more than 10 points.
According to Aksoy Research, a Turkish polling company, Kilicdaroglu would secure 55.6 percent of the vote, while his coalition could win by six points over the ruling coalition in the parliamentary elections, with 44.1 percent of the vote.
These estimates do not take into account the votes of HDP supporters, who are credited with 11.3 percent according to the same poll.
Repressive turn
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, believes that HDP voters are likely to support Kilicdaroglu.
In 2013, Kilicdaroglu initiated a peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and expressed a willingness to grant certain rights to the Kurdish community, which won him the support of a part of the Kurdish electorate.
Erdogan was elected Turkey’s president, in practice a ceremonial position, in 2014. Following electoral defeats for his party in 2015, and a surge in support for the HDP, Erdogan veered toward authoritarianism. His government cracked down on MPs and members of the HDP, which was now depicted as a political offshoot of the PKK — whose militant pursuit of an independent Kurdistan earned it a terrorist designation by the Turkish state and its international allies.
Following the 2017 referendum, Turkey’s political system was retooled from a parliamentary to a presidential regime, consolidating state and government power in Erdogan’s hands.
This change precipitated a further decline in support for the AKP in Kurdish strongholds that had previously been favorable to the president.
This shift provided an opportunity for the opposition to regain some of the lost votes.
In the 2019 Istanbul mayoral elections, the pro-Kurdish political group joined forces with the CHP candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, securing him a resounding victory.
In 2016, several of HDP leaders were arrested, and the state removed Kurdish mayors from office.
Ankara launched legal proceedings to ban the party in June, 2021, alleging links with the PKK. Despite the HDP’s request to postpone the outcome of the case until after the May 14 elections, the Turkish Constitutional Court rejected the request Wednesday.
HDP’s leaders announced they would participate in parliamentary elections under the banner of the Green Left Party (YSP), a small environmentalist party.
The Turkish president has limited room for maneuvering to expand his alliance.
Rumors emerged recently suggesting that the AKP is seeking a rapprochement with the Free Cause Party, a small Kurdish nationalist party closely associated with Kurdish Hezbollah. This Islamist group supports Turkish army campaigns against the leftist PKK and is itself accused of terrorist attacks.
Faced with the HDP’s significant influence, Erdogan may intensify his efforts to demonize his opponents and allies, including Kurds.
“Erdogan will likely argue that the opposition is fragmented and unable to govern effectively if elected. He will also criticize Kilicdaroglu for his cooperation with HDP,” said Unluhisarcikli, adding it is too late for Erdogan to win the Kurdish vote.
This story originally ran in French in L’Orient-Le Jour, translated by Sahar Ghoussoub