On the left is former Lebanese President Elias Sarkis. On the right is former Lebanese President Fouad Chehab.
Officially, the constitutional deadline to elect a president starts in two weeks. As of Sept. 1, Nabih Berri can convene Parliament to elect Michel Aoun’s successor.
But this is unlikely to be a quick or easy process. Historically, electing a Lebanese president is often the result of a consensus, both internally and regionally. The talks are currently going well, and give the impression that several local and international actors have in mind two typical profiles: either a “new” Fouad Chehab or a “new” Elias Sarkis.
Chehab, a former army commander-in-chief who was elected president in 1958, is perceived as the president who modernized the Lebanese state by establishing several solid institutions. He also represented a sense of balance when it came to regional conflicts.
Meanwhile, Sarkis, a former central bank governor, was elected in 1976 as a result of his economic skills and for achieving consensus at a time of acute crisis with the outbreak of the Civil War.
Current regional developments, including a possible revival of the Iran-US nuclear deal, suggest that the upcoming new Lebanese president will be a consensus figure like Chehab or Sarkis.
Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai was the first to pave the way for a candidate that has no partisan affiliation, publicly criticizing the concept of the “strong president” in a sermon on July 10. “We need to elect a president who is above the fray, above political and partisan alignments, a president who is not provocative, nor driven by personal interests, a president capable of serving a national and constitutional reference, with firm ethics,” said the patriarch. He thus ruled out the candidacies of the three Christian leaders who are looking to assume office: Samir Geagea, Gebran Bassil and Sleiman Frangieh.
The first two are now aware that they have zero chances in the current context. The third, close to Hezbollah and Damascus, hopes to be accepted as a consensus figure, which seems complicated.
Neither Geagea nor Bassil appears ready, for the moment, to support Marada leader Frangieh. The patriarch is also opposed to his accession to Baabda. According to information obtained by L’Orient-Le Jour, a meeting could take place soon between Rai and former presidents and prime minister to develop a roadmap for the designation of a candidate. During a meeting held on Saturday between the patriarch and Bassil, Rai stressed the need to agree on candidates who inspire confidence and trust, L’Orient-Le Jour also learned.
Hezbollah seems to have decided on Frangieh as its candidate, albeit without announcing them for the moment. “Hezbollah will not have a candidate for the presidential election, but could support one,” the party’s secretary general said in late July.
Can Hezbollah accept a compromise? This is the reason behind the initiative of Progressive Socials Party leader Walid Joumblatt, who met last week with two Hezbollah representatives in order to discuss the option of a consensus candidate.
Joseph Aoun and Jihad Azour
In parallel to the domestic activity, regional and international powers are at work. France is the country most involved in this issue and is keen to avoid a presidential vacuum at all costs.
French President Emmanuel Macron raised the issue with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman when they met in Paris last month. “Macron proposed some names to MBS,” an Arab diplomat, who declined to be named, told L’Orient-Le Jour. But it seems that the crown prince has not paid sufficient attention to the issue of Lebanon’s next president. Riyadh is expected to decide by September whether or not it will be more involved in the Lebanese scene, especially in view of the presidential election, L’Orient-Le Jour learned from a Saudi official.
The names that were leaked in the media and circulated in political circles include that of HSBC Middle East chairman Samir Assaf, who is considered close to Macron. There is also Salim Edde, co-founder of Murex and shareholder of L’Orient-Le Jour, although he is not involved in Lebanese politics. The names of Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund, and former Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud were also reportedly mentioned.
The non-political figure whose name is raised most often, however, is the commander-in-chief of the army, Joseph Aoun. “He has the advantage of being able to talk to everyone and could garner unanimity in the event of an agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue,” said a Western diplomat, who declined to be named.
During his talk on Saturday with the Patriarch, Bassil asked Rai for his opinion following the latter’s recent meeting in Beirut with French ambassador Anne Grillo, during which several names were mentioned.
“Bassil heard that Samir Assaf would not enjoy unanimity because he does not know the country and is far from politics,” a source close to the Free Patriotic Movement’s leader told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity.
Our newspaper also learned that Hezbollah told the French, the UN and all those communicating with it that it is in favor of a person who will be parachuted in from abroad and who does not know the Lebanese landscape. “We can’t accept anyone who doesn’t know the meaning of the resistance,” said a Hezbollah official, who declined to be named in this article. According to him, Hezbollah has set its conditions: it will not accept a candidate who brings up the issue of the resistance’s weapons and provokes a conflict over this issue.
Back to the original equation, though: Fouad Chehab or Elias Sarkis?
Fouad Chehab’s specifications fit Joseph Aoun. “If social disorganization sets in, the army chief seems to have the best profile to stabilize the situation,” said the Western diplomat.
However, if the priority is to sign an agreement with the IMF, a president who has Elias Sarkis’ profile seems more suitable — namely Jihad Azour, who is also trusted by international forces but could face political difficulties with Hezbollah.
Several diplomatic circles and local actors would like to find a consensus not only on the name of the president, but also on a two-person team. Lebanon’s former ambassador to the UN, Nawaf Salam, is being considered for the post of prime minister in order to strengthen Lebanon’s credibility with international institutions. L’Orient-Le Jour learned that the diplomat is currently in Beirut and is intensifying contacts, mainly with Joseph Aoun. This ticket could be endorsed by the international community, and more arduously by Hezbollah.
This article was originally published in French on L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.