Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. (Credit: AFP)
Walid Bukhari, Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, gathered around him at his residence in Yarze Monday evening all the leading figures opposed to Hezbollah, including Lebanese Force head Samir Geagea, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Joumblatt and former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, as well as the US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, and French Ambassador Anne Grillo.
Apparently Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was much dismayed by this, and was a spoilsport about it.
In a speech delivered almost simultaneously with Bukhari’s iftar, the party leader warned against the risk of Saudi political money flowing into the country “under the pretext of humanitarian aid.”
Almost a month before parliamentary elections, Nasrallah seems to underline the main threat to his party and his camp: Saudi Arabia.
The Hezbollah leader warned of the dangers posed by Saudi re-engagement in the local scene after months of political estrangement, expressing concerns of a scenario similar to that of 2009 play out again.
That year, he said, “hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on media, campaigning and vote-buying in the final weeks leading up to the elections,” to ensure a landslide victory for the March 14 camp.
Although Nasrallah seemed to tone down his rhetoric vis-à-vis Riyadh — speaking in favor of dialogue to end the war in Yemen — in Lebanon, the electoral battle has officially begun.
“This is the reason why Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Nasrallah’s ally, made sure to send Agriculture Minister Abbas Hajj Hassan, who is not an Amal Movement member, to represent him at the Saudi ambassador’s residency,” said Salem Zahran, a political analyst close to Hezbollah.
“It was a detour to avoid being affiliated with this monochrome assembly,” he added.
In a desire to remobilize his electoral base against a possible political front supported by Riyadh, Nasrallah has warned voters not to rest on their laurels, even if the situation of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement is untroubled in their constituencies and looks rather comfortable.
“Let no one behave as if things are a foregone conclusion,” Nasrallah warned.
The risk of postponement
For the first time, Nasrallah cautioned against postponing the vote, an eventuality that would be “the work of embassies, including the American one, and some political parties seeking to strengthen the position of the opposing camp while our camp is set to preserve its parliamentary majority.”
As the Lebanese ambassadors' strike continues over salary demands, and while judges and teachers appointed to the vote-counting commissions are recusing themselves in large numbers for financial and logistical reasons, media are again reporting the risk of the vote being postponed.
“In the past, it was our side that was accused of trying to sabotage the deadline. Today, it is our most basic right to throw the ball back to them,” Hezbollah spokesman Mohammad Afif Nabulsi told L'Orient-Le Jour.
Over the past few weeks, Gebran Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement, Hezbollah’s ally, which has seen its popularity decline, has been the main target of multiplying accusations of seeking to torpedo the elections.
Meanwhile, Nasrallah has been insisting that, with its solid electoral machine, his party is confident and ready to pass the popularity test.
If the Hezbollah leader mentioned a possibility of postponement, it is to wash his hands of the matter, just in case such scenario plays out, throwing the ball in his opponents’ court.
There’s still a possibility that President Michel Aoun wishes to postpone the polls to protect Bassil, his son-in-law, using the ambassadors’ strike and judges’ withdrawal as a pretext to do so, according to an analyst close to the March 14 alliance.
Unable to accuse his Christian ally directly, Nasrallah tried to shift the blame to the Americans.
For Nasrallah, his adversaries find themselves in a weak position and therefore they are seeking with their Western allies to push back the vote a few months, pending a more favorable context.
“It is the camp of Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil who would be tempted to undermine legislative elections abroad,” said an ambassador who requested anonymity.
Should Lebanese ambassadors continue their strike, ongoing for the past two weeks, it could jeopardize the diaspora vote, and in turn torpedo the electoral deadline at home.
“The parliamentary elections will certainly take place on May 15,” Nasrallah said in his speech, “and it will be a democratic electoral battle.”
Hezbollah unperturbed
In Hezbollah circles, people seem to be amused by the accusations directed against the party and its Aounist ally, deeming that they are, today more than ever, “unfounded.”
“Hezbollah is the most confident party in the legislative elections,” Zahran said. “It is ready and counting on a perfectly oiled electoral machine. It will surprise everyone with its results.”
This anticipated victory can only have repercussions on its Christian ally, the FPM, which can now count on the almost unconditional support it will receive from the Iran-backed party with which it has joined forces across Lebanon.
Analysts close to Hezbollah believe that the FPM will benefit from the support it will receive from Hezbollah in constituencies such as Baalbek-Hermel, Zahle, Chouf-Aley and Beirut II.
“I can already predict that at least 17 Aounist MPs will succeed in breaking through,” Zahran said confidently.
These remain optimistic forecasts, whereas a few months ago, Bassil's party could not hope to win more than 10 seats, according to experts.
Should this scenario play out, the FPM will have Hezbollah to thank for this and, incidentally, Amal.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.
