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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2022

The presidential race at the heart of Baabda-Bkirki standoff

Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai opposes any extension of President Michel Aoun's term in office. The two are expected to meet this week at the Presidential Palace. 

The presidential race at the heart of Baabda-Bkirki standoff

Michel Aoun and Bechara al-Rai meet on Christmas Day 2021. (Credit: Dalati and Nohra)

In an interview with local television channel LBCI on Sunday, Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai took a clear stance opposing the postponement of the legislative elections, scheduled for May 15, and above all opposing the renewal of President Michel Aoun’s term in office, which expires on Oct. 31.

His remarks were mainly directed at the presidential camp, but also at the rest of the political players in the country.

The head of the church, one of the two Maronite poles of the country, drew a red line at a time when the presidential election is at the center of electoral calculations in the run-up to the May vote, and when the president and his camp, whose popularity is declining, are accused of wanting to postpone both electoral contests.

“We must elect a new president two months before the end of the current term,” Rai said.

“You need to choose the candidates now so that a head of state capable of respecting the constitution without fear is elected,” he added, addressing MPs who will make up the next Parliament.

These words come in a context of tense relations between the president and the patriarch, which, according to several observers, could have an impact on the choices of Christian voters on May 15.

“The Maronite patriarch is not sending political messages to anyone. He is only underlining the need to apply the constitutional texts which stipulate that Parliament is elected for a period of four years, and that the president’s term in office is six years. That’s it,” a well-informed source told L’Orient-Le Jour.

“We should not go too far in interpreting Rai’s remarks,” the source added.

Except that the timing of the Maronite Patriarch’s statements suggests that this is a reaction to a remark Aoun’ recently made.

Speaking on March 31 to a delegation of the newly elected Maronite League, Aoun stated bluntly that he would not leave his post “before having exposed all the corrupt.”

He also said that the country's recovery “will be the responsibility of [his] successor.”

The head of state is once again making ambiguous statements on this subject. Will he leave Baabda Palace on Oct. 31? Will he want to have the last word on the choice of his successor, especially since he already seems to be dictating what the next president should do?

In November 2021, Aoun had already set the tone: “I will not hand over power to a vacuum,” he said in an interview with the pro-Hezbollah daily Al-Akhbar.

These statements caused an outcry, and since they were made, the presidency has repeatedly tried to rectify the situation, but this does not seem to be enough to calm trepidations.

It is in this context that we must interpret Rai’s insistence on holding the parliamentary and presidential elections within the constitutionally stipulated time limit.

“Beware of any postponement of the legislative elections,” Rai warned in his interview on Sunday. “We will not accept that the legislature be extended. And the elections will undoubtedly take place,” he added.

Ghada Aoun under fire from Rai

The Maronite prelate took advantage of his televised interview to target the head of state, particularly on the arm wrestling between Judge Ghada Aoun, close to the president, and Banque du Liban Governor Riad Salameh, the antagonist of the president and his party, the Free Patriotic Movement.

Rai denounced what he called a “politicized and confessional judiciary,” deploring the fact that “cases are fabricated” by some judges.

In this context, he said that “BDL and all ministers should be investigated,” adding that it was “unacceptable that only one person is prosecuted.”

“We have a different approach than that of the patriarch, regarding the Salameh case,” Simon Abi Ramia, FPM MP for Jbeil, told L’Orient-Le Jour.

Despite Rai’s implicit criticism of the president, Baabda sources claim relations between the two are “good.”

“We are expecting Rai this week in Baabda,” a source close to Aoun said.

Beyond the ceremonial nature of this meeting between the patriarch and the president, the first since their respective trips last month to Egypt and the Vatican, Rai should “dot the i’s,” according to the same source.

"The patriarch could call on Michel Aoun to take advantage of the six months he has left in Baabda to bring Lebanon back into the Arab fold and prepare the holding of the legislative and presidential elections, instead of drowning in battles that are now inappropriate," the source believes.


This article was originally published in French by L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.

In an interview with local television channel LBCI on Sunday, Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai took a clear stance opposing the postponement of the legislative elections, scheduled for May 15, and above all opposing the renewal of President Michel Aoun’s term in office, which expires on Oct. 31.His remarks were mainly directed at the presidential camp, but also at the rest of the political...